4849 Harlem Rd · Eggertsville, NY 14226

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 226 Days on market

Built 1940 0.41 ac lot $238/sqft · 27% below area Est $227k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller Inherited Family Property. Very old home in need of everything. .41 acre lot with 270 Ft depth allows for new build of any size. Property is tenant occupied for many years.

Key facts

• .41 acre lot
• 270 ft depth
• 0.41 acre lot

Tags

• .41 ACRE LOT
• 270 FT DEPTH

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $165,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$227,293) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($536/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.5% in Eggertsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#34 in NY, #534 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-.
• Amherst Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #209 of 590 in NY (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.0%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,293
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -27.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
706 Longmeadow Rd	0.70mi	2/1.5	768 (+11%)	8mo	$200,000	$260	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,207
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $29,900
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14226

• Rents YoY: 9.0%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,676/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1335 Millersport Hwy Unit 1335-06 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	560	$1,415	$2.53	43d	1	1.02mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	11d	1	1.02mi
1335 Millersport Hwy Unit 04 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	1d	1	1.02mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Unit 1335-06 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	560	$1,415	$2.53	43d	1	1.03mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Unit 1357-03 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	713	$1,595	$2.24	43d	1	1.03mi
1357 Millersport Hwy Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$1,595	$2.51	1d	2	1.03mi
4865 Main St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	11d	1	1.19mi
1233 Eggert Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 218 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2025-11-03
    listed $165,000 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Seller Inherited Family Property. Very old home in need of everything. .41 acre lot with 270 Ft depth allows for new build of any size. Property is tenant occupied for many years.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,676 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,676 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$3,676
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$2,147
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$515
• After-tax cash flow: $1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amherst Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602920
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $68,551
• Composite: 53.21/100
• National rank: #1502
• State rank: #209 of 590 in NY

Livability — Eggertsville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #534

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime C- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 29,482
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,159
• Household income: $84,325
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 856.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -270.71%
• Current HPI: 331.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Listed $165,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,676 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.