2263 N Trekell Rd #153 · Casa Grande, AZ 85122

$172,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 34 Days on market

Built 2016 Good condition Est $136k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful inviting home nestled on a peaceful corner lot in the back of the highly sought-after 55+ community of Rancho Val Vista Estates. From the moment you walk through the door, you're greeted by soaring vaulted ceilings, an abundance of natural light, and a warm, welcoming atmosphere that instantly feels like home. The spacious living and dining areas are perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying everyday life. Easy-to-maintain vinyl flooring flows throughout the home, offering both durability and convenience for everyday living. The kitchen features ample cabinetry and countertop space, along with a prep island and a breakfast bar that creates the per

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Prep island
• Ample cabinetry

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• VINYL FLOORING
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• PREP ISLAND
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $593 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Community spa; Fitness center; Pickleball courts

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Storage; Partial fencing; Desert front and desert back landscaping; Automatic water timers front and back; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Furnished (see remarks); Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Skylights; Vinyl window frames; Solar panels; Accessible hallways
• Laundry & utility: Water purifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.1% in Casa Grande — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#220 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools F.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,840 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.26%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,416
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2263 N Trekell Rd #158	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,624 (+4%)	3mo	$195,000	$120	91
2263 N Trekell Rd #90	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,658 (+6%)	0mo	$145,000	$87	90
2263 N Trekell Rd #67	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,472 (-6%)	1mo	$187,500	$127	89
2100 N Trekell Rd	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$32,900	$21	82
2263 N Trekell Rd Rd #77	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	1mo	$175,000	$125	81
2263 N Trekell Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	2mo	$165,000	$118	81
2263 N Trekell Rd #36	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	4mo	$184,000	$131	79
2100 N Trekell Rd #254	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$92,500	$59	77
2100 N Trekell Rd #239	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$75,900	$48	77
2100 N Trekell Rd #336	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,652 (+5%)	3mo	$69,000	$42	74
2100 N Trekell Rd #226	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,456 (-7%)	3mo	$37,000	$25	67
2100 N Trekell Rd #143	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,456 (-7%)	2mo	$65,000	$45	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,141
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $13,749
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85122

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$215 /mo · $2,580/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $230	+0% $171	+5% $112	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $103	+0% $171	+5% $239	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $215	base $171	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1139 E Yucca St Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.31mi
700 E Rodeo Rd Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$1,436	$1.73	3d	25	0.58mi
1201 E Barcelona Ave Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1803	$1,900	$1.05	24d	1	0.64mi
1936 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,492	$1.44	2d	29	0.69mi
1926 N Avenida de Palmas Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,199	$1.08	22d	3	0.77mi
2094 N Sweetwater Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	24d	1	1.10mi
1775 N Terrace Cir Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,699	$1.04	15d	1	1.11mi
1858 N Center Ave Casa Grande, AZ	2.0	2.0	1146	$1,500	$1.31	24d	1	1.15mi
520 W Casa Mirage Ct Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,600	$1.04	5d	1	1.24mi
1161 E O'Neil Dr Casa Grande, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1144	$1,295	$1.13	3d	12	1.25mi
2575 N Lupita Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1630	$1,595	$0.98	24d	1	1.27mi
2569 N Agave Ln Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	24d	1	1.42mi
1547 E Inouye Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$3,500	$2.23	24d	1	1.43mi
2710 N Mulberry Pl Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,100	$1.29	5d	1	1.45mi
1552 E Inouye Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,699	$1.09	15d	1	1.46mi
1552 E Inouye Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,699	$1.08	12d	1	1.46mi
645 W Jardin Dr Casa Grande, AZ	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,650	$1.26	24d	1	1.47mi
1620 N Trekell Rd Casa Grande, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1090	$2,165	$1.99	1d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $172,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $172,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $172,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,580
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $2,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a good curb appeal. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and flooring updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Updating the flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the flooring — Hardwood floors are durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Casa Grande

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #21534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Casa Grande, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 69,701
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 61,624
• Household income: $68,443
• Rent vs Own: 28.6% rent · 71.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1250.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 42% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.32%
• Current HPI: 233.148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $172,000 ARMLS