5616 Newcastle Ct #5321 · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$339,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · Condo · 63 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $595/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This attached home is the largest plan in the collection. A two-car garage sits on the first floor, while upstairs is an open concept living space with sliding doors to the outdoor entertainment area. Also on the top floor are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

Key facts

• $595 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is part of a multi-unit building: 4 units in building, 2 units per floor, single-story unit; Has waterfront: lake view and golf course/water views; Lot described as regular; private paved road access; Restrictions: architectural, deeded, no commercial, no RV
• Financial info: Property located in a gated golf-course community with community dues and one-time fees
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $610 quarterly; Master HOA fee $203 quarterly; Condo fee $971 quarterly; One-time fee $3,750; Total annual recurring fees $7,886; On-site management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise/fitness facilities, full-service spa, tennis and pickleball courts, putting green, golf course, restaurant, sauna, community room, playground/park, sidewalks, streetlights, underground utilities, private membership options; Maintenance covered: cable, golf course, internet/Wi-Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, street lights, street maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community; Guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Electric service (central)
• Home design: Residential property; Carriage/coach building; Low-rise (1-3 stories); Rear exposure facing east; Located in The National Golf & Country Club at Ave Maria
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Impact resistant doors and windows; Windows: impact resistant, single-hung, sliding; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Patio; Screened lanai/porch; Screened balcony; Sprinkler system (auto)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/ice maker; Self-cleaning oven; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Cable available
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; Fire sprinkler; Foyer; French doors; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Home automation
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $340k).
• Recommended offer: $320k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,956/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,598 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $26,068
• Equity at exit: $81,285

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $117,896
• Equity at exit: $84,687

Cash invested: $95,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,041
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,920

Max offer price $339,998

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	21d	1	0.10mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	23d	1	0.10mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.11mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	23d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	23d	1	0.12mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	23d	1	0.13mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	23d	1	0.13mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	12d	1	0.13mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	12d	1	0.14mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	12d	1	0.17mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	3d	1	0.17mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	23d	1	0.18mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	12d	1	0.19mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	21d	1	0.20mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	21d	1	0.21mi
5739 Oakmont Ct #8412 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.23mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	23d	1	0.23mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	21d	1	0.23mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	21d	1	0.23mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	21d	1	0.25mi
5728 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	12d	1	0.27mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	14d	1	0.28mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	21d	1	0.28mi
5722 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	12d	1	0.29mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	21d	1	0.33mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	23d	1	0.42mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	21d	1	0.42mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.44mi
5856 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,995	$4.00	23d	1	0.45mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	23d	1	0.47mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	14d	1	0.49mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	21d	1	0.51mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	12d	1	0.52mi
5897 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	3.0	2000	$7,495	$3.75	23d	1	0.56mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	23d	1	0.56mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	23d	1	0.59mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	23d	1	0.59mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	21d	1	0.59mi
5938 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,995	$4.89	23d	1	0.60mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	23d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,998 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,998 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,998 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,998 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,998 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,998 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,998 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,998 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $339,998 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,998 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,998 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,998 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,998 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $339,998 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-16
    listed $339,998 Active
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $339,998 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    This attached home is the largest plan in the collection. A two-car garage sits on the first floor, while upstairs is an open concept living space with sliding doors to the outdoor entertainment area. Also on the top floor are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$3,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,758
• − Management: −$4,758
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable income: $5,254
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $8,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready condo is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the spacious living areas and the resort-style amenities nearby.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting exterior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value.
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to a wider audience.
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing and increase its value for resale.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior walls — Fresh paint can make the home look more inviting and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to a wider audience. ↑
• Resale Upgrading bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can make the bathroom more appealing and increase its value for resale. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $339,998 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $339,998 Zillow