51675 Ash Ave · Nessel, MN 55080

$349,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 0.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this year-round home that has a beautiful view of West Rush Lake from the deck. Located on a cul-de-sac, this home has channel access to the lake. The home has a primary bedroom on the main level with an attached full bath. The kitchen is large with a spacious eat-in area. The upper level has a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and leads out to the deck, offering a view of the large backyard and the lake. Spiral stairs lead you downstairs to a large family room with a double-sided fireplace, wood burning on one side and gas on the other side. The second bedroom downstairs also has an attached full bath. Sliding doors lead out to your patio. The tuck-under garage is also accessed from the lower level. A great place to store lawn equipment, toys, and your canoe or kayak! Also included with this great property is a large, oversized two-car garage with a concrete floor that is close to the shoreline. Use your imagination on this one! A great man cave, she shed, whatever! It's just waiting for your ideas. New furnace and a/c installed in 2024. Public access to the lake is one street south of the property.

Key facts

• 0.66 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Built 1974

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $328k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Braham Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #170 of 301 in MN (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 362 units permitted in Chisago County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chisago County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $275k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $328,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-21,003
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $27,256
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55080

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,481 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,578/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,773

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $349,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $349,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $349,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $349,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $349,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    price $349,000 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    Enjoy this year-round home that has a beautiful view of West Rush Lake from the deck. Located on a cul-de-sac, this home has channel access to the lake. The home has a primary bedroom on the main level with an attached full bath. The kitchen is large with a spacious eat-in area. The upper level has a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and leads out to the deck, offering a view of the large backyard and the lake. Spiral stairs lead you downstairs to a large family room with a double-sided fireplace, wood burning on one side and gas on the other side. The second bedroom downstairs also has an attached full bath. Sliding doors lead out to your patio. The tuck-under garage is also accessed from the lower level. A great place to store lawn equipment, toys, and your canoe or kayak! Also included with this great property is a large, oversized two-car garage with a concrete floor that is close to the shoreline. Use your imagination on this one! A great man cave, she shed, whatever! It's just waiting for your ideas. New furnace and a/c installed in 2024. Public access to the lake is one street south of the property.

17. 2026-04-15
    status Active 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    Enjoy this year-round home that has a beautiful view of West Rush Lake from the deck. Located on a cul-de-sac, this home has channel access to the lake. The home has a primary bedroom on the main level with an attached full bath. The kitchen is large with a spacious eat-in area. The upper level has a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and leads out to the deck, offering a view of the large backyard and the lake. Spiral stairs lead you downstairs to a large family room with a double-sided fireplace, wood burning on one side and gas on the other side. The second bedroom downstairs also has an attached full bath. Sliding doors lead out to your patio. The tuck-under garage is also accessed from the lower level. A great place to store lawn equipment, toys, and your canoe or kayak! Also included with this great property is a large, oversized two-car garage with a concrete floor that is close to the shoreline. Use your imagination on this one! A great man cave, she shed, whatever! It's just waiting for your ideas. New furnace and a/c installed in 2024. Public access to the lake is one street south of the property.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $369,000 Active 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    Enjoy this year-round home that has a beautiful view of West Rush Lake from the deck. Located on a cul-de-sac, this home has channel access to the lake. The home has a primary bedroom on the main level with an attached full bath. The kitchen is large with a spacious eat-in area. The upper level has a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and leads out to the deck, offering a view of the large backyard and the lake. Spiral stairs lead you downstairs to a large family room with a double-sided fireplace, wood burning on one side and gas on the other side. The second bedroom downstairs also has an attached full bath. Sliding doors lead out to your patio. The tuck-under garage is also accessed from the lower level. A great place to store lawn equipment, toys, and your canoe or kayak! Also included with this great property is a large, oversized two-car garage with a concrete floor that is close to the shoreline. Use your imagination on this one! A great man cave, she shed, whatever! It's just waiting for your ideas. New furnace and a/c installed in 2024. Public access to the lake is one street south of the property.

19. 2026-04-03
    historical $369,000 1132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1132 chars)

    Enjoy this year-round home that has a beautiful view of West Rush Lake from the deck. Located on a cul-de-sac, this home has channel access to the lake. The home has a primary bedroom on the main level with an attached full bath. The kitchen is large with a spacious eat-in area. The upper level has a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and leads out to the deck, offering a view of the large backyard and the lake. Spiral stairs lead you downstairs to a large family room with a double-sided fireplace, wood burning on one side and gas on the other side. The second bedroom downstairs also has an attached full bath. Sliding doors lead out to your patio. The tuck-under garage is also accessed from the lower level. A great place to store lawn equipment, toys, and your canoe or kayak! Also included with this great property is a large, oversized two-car garage with a concrete floor that is close to the shoreline. Use your imagination on this one! A great man cave, she shed, whatever! It's just waiting for your ideas. New furnace and a/c installed in 2024. Public access to the lake is one street south of the property.

20. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus $275,000 Sold 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    You won't want to miss this one! Property has channel access to West Rush Lake with a gorgeous lake view from the deck. The main level has an open concept with a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and a statement brick fireplace chimney. Laminate hardwoods throughout. Spiral staircase to lower level and a walkout to a large back yard with an additional two-car garage. Please also note the geothermal heating system -- very economical! Enjoy lake living with an affordable price tag!

21. 2022-03-30
    soldstatus $275,000

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    You won't want to miss this one! Property has channel access to West Rush Lake with a gorgeous lake view from the deck. The main level has an open concept with a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and a statement brick fireplace chimney. Laminate hardwoods throughout. Spiral staircase to lower level and a walkout to a large back yard with an additional two-car garage. Please also note the geothermal heating system -- very economical! Enjoy lake living with an affordable price tag!

22. 2022-02-28
    status Pending 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    You won't want to miss this one! Property has channel access to West Rush Lake with a gorgeous lake view from the deck. The main level has an open concept with a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and a statement brick fireplace chimney. Laminate hardwoods throughout. Spiral staircase to lower level and a walkout to a large back yard with an additional two-car garage. Please also note the geothermal heating system -- very economical! Enjoy lake living with an affordable price tag!

23. 2022-02-22
    listed $275,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    You won't want to miss this one! Property has channel access to West Rush Lake with a gorgeous lake view from the deck. The main level has an open concept with a beautiful knotty pine ceiling and a statement brick fireplace chimney. Laminate hardwoods throughout. Spiral staircase to lower level and a walkout to a large back yard with an additional two-car garage. Please also note the geothermal heating system -- very economical! Enjoy lake living with an affordable price tag!

24. 2021-09-28
    status Active
25. 2021-08-31
    price $250,000
26. 2021-08-20
    listed $270,000 Active
27. 2012-02-13
    soldstatus $53,760
28. 2011-12-30
    historical
29. 2011-10-24
    listed $49,900
30. 2011-10-06
    historical
31. 2011-07-15
    listed $69,900
32. 1988-04-13
    soldstatus $57,773

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,578 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,243 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 25.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$2,578
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,342
• − Management: −$3,342
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable income: $1,063
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $6,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Braham Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706060
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $53,333
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3987
• State rank: #170 of 301 in MN

Livability — Nessel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,281

Population outlook (Chisago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,187 people
• By 2030: 55,036 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 53,293 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 49,157 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 38,399 · -30.4%
• By 2100: 24,646 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Romanian 8% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Chisago

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.5% · R 64.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.2 2016: R+30.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.23%
• Current HPI: 336.3158
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+504.1% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $349,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $369,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $369,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-30 Sold (MLS) $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-22 Listed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-28 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-31 Price Changed $250,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-20 Listed $270,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-13 Sold (MLS) $53,760 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-30 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-24 Listed $49,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-15 Listed $69,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $57,773 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,578 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.