152 Dockside Rd · Freeport, FL 32439

$317,183

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,799 sqft · Land · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 $59/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 152 Dockside Road, This spectacular floor plan is a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a two-car garage. The Cali floor plan features a large covered front porch with space for a sitting area. As you enter this home you will find a long hallway leading to the living area. Two bedrooms are off the entry with a full bathroom in between. Across the hall is a fourth bedroom and large laundry room. The fourth bedroom is a perfect space for a den or even a home office. Continuing down the hall, you will find yourself at an open kitchen with center island, a large dining space and comfortable living area. The primary bedroom is found at the back of the home and features a large bathroom wi

Key facts

• Large dining space
• Large laundry room
• Open kitchen

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• LARGE DINING SPACE
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.0% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Freeport Senior High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 557 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1012 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($289k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,849 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,647
• Equity at exit: $47,293

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-93,258
• Equity at exit: $27,424

Cash invested: $88,811 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1012
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,663
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,758/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$59
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $287,536

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,296
• Closing costs: $9,515
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Hydrangea Blvd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,495	$1.35	21d	1	0.30mi
692 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,500	$1.41	21d	1	0.59mi
664 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.62mi
530 Alleyoak Ln Defuniak Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.69mi
593 Alleyoak Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$2,600	$1.59	21d	1	0.70mi
585 Claudia Cir Freeport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$2,040	$1.89	21d	47	0.80mi
36 Gray Owl Dr E Freeport, FL	4.0	2.0	2108	$2,800	$1.33	21d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $59 · $708/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $317,183
3. 2026-04-13
   price $314,183
4. 2026-04-03
   price $320,661
5. 2026-03-25
   price $323,900
6. 2026-01-12
   listed $333,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,767
• − Property taxes: −$4,758
• − Insurance: −$3,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,639
• − Management: −$2,639
• − HOA: −$708
• − Depreciation: −$9,227
• Taxable loss: −$7,844
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $317,183 ECAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $314,183 ECAR
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $320,661 ECAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $323,900 ECAR
• 2026-01-12 Listed $333,900 ECAR