812 Cedarcrest Dr · Tool, TX 75143

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,036 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1970 0.40 ac lot $130/sqft · 21% below area Est $170k · 21% under $5/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this hidden gem just minutes from the lake! Located in a desirable location with strong upside, this fixer-upper offers a rare opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create their own fishing retreat. Surrounded by natural beauty and recreational opportunities, this location is ideal for those seeking both tranquility and convenience. Whether you're looking to renovate and resell or hold and build equity, this is a project with serious potential. Bring your ideas and make this property shine—opportunities like this don’t last long! Approximate lot size of 0.25acres. Only lot 59 is included in this listing. Additional lot 58 is also fo

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1970

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot 58 is excluded and is listed for sale separately
• Financial info: Acceptable listing terms: Cash, Conventional; Second mortgage: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory association (Cedarcrest Shores POA); Annual HOA fee of $60; Association fee includes full use of facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage (garage spaces not specified); No covered or carport spaces recorded
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Asphalt utilities/driveway; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1970; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Wood construction
• Exterior features: Circular driveway; Additional parking; Lot under 0.5 acre (about 0.4 acre); Subdivision: Cedarcrest Shores Estate

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level; primary bedroom on main level)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: One-level home; Basement; Brick fireplace; Other interior features; Living area approximately 1,036
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($948/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.8% in Tool — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#651 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tool El (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 267 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 61% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 441 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.51%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,449
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -20.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 Shore Line Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+2%)	23mo	$175,000	$166	62
500 Ridgewood Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+4%)	18mo	$159,900	$148	62
816 Bradleys Bnd	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (+6%)	5mo	$155,000	$141	47
909 Royal Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	21mo	$125,000	$109	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-16,818
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,066
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,050/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $117	+0% $79	+5% $41	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $28	+0% $79	+5% $130	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $113	base $79	+0.5pp $44	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1012 Whispering Springs Dr Tool, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$1,290	$1.43	45d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $135,000 Active 752-char remark
16. 2017-10-02
    soldstatus
17. 2017-03-27
    soldstatus
18. 2000-02-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$420/yr (+$35/mo · 20.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,050
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tool

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #651
• US rank: #12292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tool, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2017-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,050 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.