8050 Simit Ln · Fairview, PA 16417

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1992 $189/sqft · 12% above area Est $437k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained Story & 1/2 Stick-built construction by Local Contractor with attached 2 car garage & storage. Deck attached to 14 x 14 Sunroom. Finished basement to include oak staircase, Bedroom, Large Family Room w/ Functioning Wood stove on Brick Hearth. Utility/Storage room. Vaulted ceiling Living Room, Plaster Ceilings & Walls. Oak trim woodwork throughout. Dining Room & Kitchen connect w/ Douglas Fir wood beams-tongue & groove ceilings. Many updates: Roof, Gutters, Skylight, Windows, Furnace, Hot Water Tank, electric panel & lines to shed, Well pump, granite kitchen countertops & flooring, stainless appliances. 1st Floor Laundry room w/ large closet. Exterior front brick & vinyl siding, soffit lighting at Front Entrance.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Oak staircase
• Finished basement

Tags

• ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• DECK ATTACHED TO SUNROOM
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• OAK STAIRCASE
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• FUNCTIONING WOOD STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($241/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.0% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#123 in PA, #963 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Fairview SD (rural): math 54% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #42 of 539 in PA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $330k implies a 1733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $288,500 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,396
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: -24.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8544 Shady Ln	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,613 (-8%)	23mo	$280,000	$174	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-52,165
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-43,654
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16417

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,692/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$606
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5885 Bluestone Dr Fairview, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1445	$2,885	$2.00	43d	51	1.48mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $330,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $330,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $330,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $330,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Well maintained Story & 1/2 Stick-built construction by Local Contractor with attached 2 car garage & storage. Deck attached to 14 x 14 Sunroom. Finished basement to include oak staircase, Bedroom, Large Family Room w/ Functioning Wood stove on Brick Hearth. Utility/Storage room. Vaulted ceiling Living Room, Plaster Ceilings & Walls. Oak trim woodwork throughout. Dining Room & Kitchen connect w/ Douglas Fir wood beams-tongue & groove ceilings. Many updates: Roof, Gutters, Skylight, Windows, Furnace, Hot Water Tank, electric panel & lines to shed, Well pump, granite kitchen countertops & flooring, stainless appliances. 1st Floor Laundry room w/ large closet. Exterior front brick & vinyl siding, soffit lighting at Front Entrance.

18. 2026-04-23
    listed $330,000 Active 815-char remark
19. 1991-10-03
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,692 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,953 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$4,692
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,770
• − Management: −$2,770
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$5,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $1,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairview SD
• NCES district ID: 4209570
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $74,956
• Composite: 56.7/100
• National rank: #1130
• State rank: #42 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fairview

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,400

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.88%
• Current HPI: 229.4345
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1733.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $330,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-04-23 Listed $330,000 Fizber.com
• 1991-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,692 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.