873 River Ln · Lavon, TX 75166

$337,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,800 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $335k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21199665 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Mesquite floor plan provides a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living. As you enter through the inviting foyer, the open kitchen offers ample space for casual meals or hosting guests. The connected dining and family rooms create a seamless flow, making it easy to unwind after a busy day or enjoy a cozy movie night. With bedrooms upstairs, including a thoughtfully designed primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, this plan delivers comfort without excess. The upstairs loft adds a flexible space for hobbies or study, making the Mesquite an adaptable home for a variety of lifestyles.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $338k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-225/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Lavon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,129 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $334,990
• List price: $337,990
• Delta: 0.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
873 River Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,311 (0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	99
1211 Paintbrush Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,321 (+0%)	1mo	$337,990	$146	97
1216 Bellflower Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,328 (+1%)	2mo	$334,990	$144	95
865 River Ln	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-10%)	0mo	$317,990	$154	82
811 River Sky Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,357 (+2%)	1mo	$449,900	$191	66
685 Sierra Rdg	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,131 (-8%)	1mo	$349,490	$164	62
953 Dahlia Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,071 (-10%)	1mo	$314,990	$152	58
525 Epiphany Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,133 (-8%)	1mo	$321,990	$151	58
817 Stone Grove Rd	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,388 (+3%)	1mo	$449,000	$188	56
412 Epiphany Ln	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,527 (+9%)	1mo	$389,990	$154	53
1719 Hillside Stroll Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,574 (+11%)	1mo	$494,900	$192	49
671 Sierra Rdg	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-15%)	2mo	$317,990	$162	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-55,885
• Equity at exit: $50,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-49,883
• Equity at exit: $29,223

Cash invested: $94,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,772
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,070/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,025

Max offer price $335,276

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $98	+0% $-19	+5% $-136	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-137	+0% $-19	+5% $100	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $67	base $-19	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-195

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,498
• Closing costs: $10,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
865 River Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$2,400	$1.16	7d	1	0.03mi
876 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2321	$3,550	$1.53	0d	1	0.07mi
888 Sunflower Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2071	$3,550	$1.71	0d	1	0.09mi
1093 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2709	$2,700	$1.00	1d	1	0.21mi
1008 Eagle Run Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	3060	$3,700	$1.21	14d	1	0.28mi
718 Moonlight Pl , TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,595	$1.15	45d	1	0.29mi
641 Poppy Ln Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	3100	$3,800	$1.23	45d	1	0.34mi
1244 Coneflower Pl Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2518	$3,600	$1.43	45d	1	0.35mi
759 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1827	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.44mi
684 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,850	$1.13	45d	1	0.45mi
600 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.50mi
575 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.50mi
946 Olive Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,650	$1.63	9d	1	0.51mi
592 Crestridge Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.52mi
557 London Dr Unit 557LD Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	9d	1	0.52mi
536 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	17d	1	0.53mi
545 London Dr Unit 545LD Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2406	$2,295	$0.95	17d	1	0.54mi
637 Sierra Rdg Lavon, TX	5.0	4.0	2937	$3,950	$1.34	45d	1	0.54mi
964 Dahlia Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	2.5	2062	$3,550	$1.72	9d	1	0.55mi
744 Devonshire Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,849	$1.16	8d	1	0.56mi
509 London Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1769	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.59mi
739 Wellington Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$1,950	$1.04	45d	1	0.59mi
760 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,000	$1.69	45d	1	0.63mi
736 Richmond Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,400	$1.27	26d	1	0.65mi
778 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,750	$1.07	14d	1	0.66mi
766 Camden Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$6,200	$3.44	4d	1	0.67mi
830 Oakhurst Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2722	$2,495	$0.92	26d	1	0.70mi
731 Yorkshire Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2542	$2,400	$0.94	45d	1	0.73mi
902 Tulip TRL Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2087	$2,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.77mi
755 Revere Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,100	$1.15	26d	1	0.79mi
1066 Carpenter Ct Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2800	$3,200	$1.14	45d	1	1.14mi
144 Millwood Rd Lavon, TX	5.0	3.5	2700	$2,600	$0.96	45d	1	1.26mi
1156 Del Rio Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,895	$1.14	26d	1	1.28mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	1.31mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	1.33mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	6d	1	1.38mi
500 Mustang Ct Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	26d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   MLS# 21199665 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Mesquite floor plan provides a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living. As you enter through the inviting foyer, the open kitchen offers ample space for casual meals or hosting guests. The connected dining and family rooms create a seamless flow, making it easy to unwind after a busy day or enjoy a cozy movie night. With bedrooms upstairs, including a thoughtfully designed primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, this plan delivers comfort without excess. The upstairs loft adds a flexible space for hobbies or study, making the Mesquite an adaptable home for a variety of lifestyles.

2. 2026-04-01
   price $337,990 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   MLS# 21199665 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Mesquite floor plan provides a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living. As you enter through the inviting foyer, the open kitchen offers ample space for casual meals or hosting guests. The connected dining and family rooms create a seamless flow, making it easy to unwind after a busy day or enjoy a cozy movie night. With bedrooms upstairs, including a thoughtfully designed primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, this plan delivers comfort without excess. The upstairs loft adds a flexible space for hobbies or study, making the Mesquite an adaptable home for a variety of lifestyles.

3. 2026-03-13
   price $336,990 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   MLS# 21199665 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Mesquite floor plan provides a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living. As you enter through the inviting foyer, the open kitchen offers ample space for casual meals or hosting guests. The connected dining and family rooms create a seamless flow, making it easy to unwind after a busy day or enjoy a cozy movie night. With bedrooms upstairs, including a thoughtfully designed primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, this plan delivers comfort without excess. The upstairs loft adds a flexible space for hobbies or study, making the Mesquite an adaptable home for a variety of lifestyles.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $334,990 Active 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   MLS# 21199665 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Mesquite floor plan provides a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living. As you enter through the inviting foyer, the open kitchen offers ample space for casual meals or hosting guests. The connected dining and family rooms create a seamless flow, making it easy to unwind after a busy day or enjoy a cozy movie night. With bedrooms upstairs, including a thoughtfully designed primary suite with a walk-in closet and ensuite bath, this plan delivers comfort without excess. The upstairs loft adds a flexible space for hobbies or study, making the Mesquite an adaptable home for a variety of lifestyles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,933
• − Property taxes: −$5,070
• − Insurance: −$1,690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,881
• − Management: −$2,881
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$9,832
• Taxable loss: −$5,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,421
• After-tax cash flow: $1,196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with a modern design and excellent condition. It offers a practical and balanced layout, perfect for modern living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Modernizes the home and adds convenience for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Upgrade to smart home features — Modernizes the home and adds convenience for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lavon, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $337,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $336,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $334,990 NTREIS