19638 Costa Marra Dr · Tomball, TX 77377

$255,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $135/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $255,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.9% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 84d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,523 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.10%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,990
• List price: $255,990
• Delta: -7.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19202 Saint Green Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,538 (+4%)	3mo	$256,990	$167	90
22119 La Scorza Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	3mo	$276,990	$173	83
19615 Tiramisu Hills Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+1%)	1mo	$269,990	$181	65
21702 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+1%)	3mo	$279,740	$188	65
21734 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+4%)	0mo	$269,390	$175	63
21718 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+4%)	0mo	$282,390	$183	62
21710 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+4%)	1mo	$282,390	$183	61
22619 Guncotton Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-4%)	1mo	$197,500	$139	60
21739 Carballo Oak Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+8%)	1mo	$356,255	$223	54
21618 Carbonari Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+7%)	1mo	$257,990	$164	54
21923 Corsica View Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,668 (+13%)	1mo	$299,990	$180	46
19722 Cape Greco Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,646 (+12%)	0mo	$299,990	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-76,003
• Equity at exit: $41,300

10-year hold

• IRR: -54.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-121,758
• Equity at exit: $23,949

Cash invested: $77,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 170 active · 94 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.8 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1145
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,155/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,594

Max offer price $219,980

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-203	-5% $-298	+0% $-394	+5% $-490	+10% $-585
Rent	-10% $-560	-5% $-477	+0% $-394	+5% $-311	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-254	-0.5pp $-324	base $-394	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,248
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.33mi
22211 Senoma Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.33mi
22154 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,997	$1.25	0d	7	0.48mi
20802 Echo Manor Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,666	$1.06	134d	1	0.57mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2069	$2,175	$1.05	0d	1	0.92mi
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,589	$1.12	130d	1	0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pool available through association
• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite ElevatedAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: Clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder constructionNew construction by Lennar HomesSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $255,990 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   pricedays on market $255,990 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $225,990 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $225,990 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $225,990 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $225,990 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $240,990 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $240,990 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $240,990 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $240,990 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $240,990 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $245,990 Active 159 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $245,990 Active 158 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 157 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 156 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 155 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 154 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $245,990 Active 153 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    price $245,990 Active 152 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $240,990 Active 152 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    price $240,990 Active 151 DOM
30. 2026-10-12
    days on market $250,990 Active 151 DOM
31. 2026-10-11
    days on market $250,990 Active 150 DOM
32. 2026-10-10
    days on market $250,990 Active 149 DOM
33. 2026-10-09
    days on market $250,990 Active 148 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $250,990 Active 147 DOM
35. 2026-10-07
    days on market $250,990 Active 146 DOM
36. 2026-10-06
    days on market $250,990 Active 145 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $250,990 Active 144 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $250,990 Active 143 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $250,990 Active 142 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $250,990 Active 141 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $250,990 Active 140 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $250,990 Active 139 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $250,990 Active 138 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 137 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $250,990 Active 136 DOM
46. 2026-09-26
    days on market $250,990 Active 135 DOM
47. 2026-09-25
    days on market $250,990 Active 134 DOM
48. 2026-09-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 133 DOM
49. 2026-09-23
    days on market $250,990 Active 132 DOM
50. 2026-09-22
    days on market $250,990 Active 131 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$4,155
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$9,614
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pool available through association
• HOA & community: Association: RealManage Onsite ElevatedAnnual association feeAssociation amenities: Clubhouse, sport court, fitness center, picnic area, park, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder constructionNew construction by Lennar HomesSlab foundationComposition roof
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Back yard fenceSubdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Bedroom (first floor)Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSeparate showerTub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

+2.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $255,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-22 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-10 Listed $249,990 Zillow