3391 W Lemon Dr · Rancho Mesa Verde, AZ 85350

$58,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 1965 Poor condition 7,165 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fix up - affixed Mobile home - large, 3 bedroom, 2 bath with porches - fenced and gated - Great project for flip or owner occupant - priced to sell quickly.

Key facts

• 7,165 sq ft lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot of approximately 7,165 square feet

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#332 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Yuma Union High School District (4507) (urban): math 14% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #212 of 249 in AZ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,399 units permitted in Yuma County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuma County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.78%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16287 S Uva Way	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-13%)	18mo	$120,000	$130	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $45,602
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.81×
• Total profit: $110,598
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85350

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4296 W County 15th St Somerton, AZ	2.0	2.0	1354	$1,600	$1.18	13d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $58,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $58,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 156-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $58,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $10,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,408
• After-tax cash flow: $7,950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and landscaping to become move-in ready. Significant structural and exterior work is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior framing — Exposed and damaged
• Major Roof — No visible roof structure
• Major Flooring — Exposed concrete and debris

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and overall condition
• Both Interior repairs and updates — Enhances livability and value
• Both Roof replacement — Essential for structural integrity and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior framing · Exposed and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No visible roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · Exposed concrete and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and overall condition ↑
• Both Interior repairs and updates — Enhances livability and value ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Essential for structural integrity and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yuma Union High School District (4507)
• NCES district ID: 0409630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,512
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #9592
• State rank: #212 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rancho Mesa Verde

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #25702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Mesa Verde, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 19,273

Population outlook (Yuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,633 people
• By 2030: 214,114 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 217,856 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 220,276 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 222,359 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 198,880 · -6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 91% Two or more races 55% White 5% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 83%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.3% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+6.2 2016: R+5.5 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.85%
• Current HPI: 265.3629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $58,000 YAR