118 Willow Dr · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$199,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1989 0.27 ac lot $263/sqft · 25% above area Est $185k · 8% over $108/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

TOTALLY RENOVATED, ONE-LEVEL-LIVING, 3 BR/1 FULL BATH, POCONO COUNTRY-MODERN RANCH HOME ON A CRAWLSPACE W/ BRAND NEW ROOF & SEPTIC SYSTEM ON . 27 ACRE LOT w/ TONS OF BEAUTIFUL PACHYSANDRA & A NICE STORAGE SHED, IN DINGMANS FERRY, PA. This charming, move-in-ready home in the heart of the Poconos is the perfect starter, downsizer, or vacation getaway, offering low-maintenance living with extensive upgrades including all new windows, vinyl siding, electrical, electric baseboard heat, plumbing, and sprawling luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects a spacious living room to the kitchen and dining area, creating an inviting and functional fl

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Brand new roof
• New septic system

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEW WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING
• ELECTRIC BASEBOARD HEAT
• NEW PLUMBING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road with road maintenance agreement; Lot dimensions approximately 53 x 144 x 44 x 71 x 138 (0.27 acres); Paved private road frontage; Subdivision: Birchwood Lake Estates
• HOA & community: Has homeowners association; Annual association fee ($1,300) with a derived monthly equivalent of $108.33; One-time association fee listed; Association covers security and snow removal; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, basketball court, playground, park, pond, picnic area, game court, beach access, and gated access

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Gated community; Security guard; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private well water; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available; Electricity connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One story; Entry at front door; Entry level 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built with asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Storage; Shed(s); Deck; Porch; Rear porch; Storm door(s); Asphalt roof; Community outdoor pool; View; Close to clubhouse; Back yard; Cleared lot; Community lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom with fireplace
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Wood heating; Fireplace(s)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Open floor plan; Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Granite counters; Double pane windows; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $200k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $164,512 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,769
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: 8.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Tulip St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (0%)	4mo	$203,000	$267	71
164 Aspen Rd	0.19mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-1%)	20mo	$249,175	$332	68
105 Dogwood Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	840 (+10%)	7mo	$150,000	$179	66
205 Aspen Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0	793 (+4%)	15mo	$185,000	$233	59
111 Arrowood Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	794 (+4%)	21mo	$150,000	$189	57
135 Beech Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0	811 (+7%)	23mo	$168,500	$208	54
118 Maple Street St	0.49mi	2/1.0	800 (+5%)	23mo	$216,382	$270	49
153 E Shore Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	848 (+12%)	12mo	$329,000	$388	48
162 Butternut St	0.68mi	2/1.0	770 (+1%)	24mo	$123,150	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $100,713
• Equity at exit: $180,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $303,190
• Equity at exit: $388,554

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,271/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $177,073

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,999 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $199,999 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $215,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   price $224,999 1845-char remark
8. 2026-05-06
   listed $225,000 Active 1845-char remark
9. 1996-02-13
   soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,271 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,716 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,741
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,271
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birchwood Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+419.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $199,999 PWMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $215,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $219,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $224,999 PWMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $225,000 PWMLS
• 1996-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,271 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.