13398 Shea Cir · Foley, AL 36535

$274,040

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OUR BRAND NEW MAGNOLIA PINES SUBDIVISION LOCATED IN FOLEY. Special interest rates with preferred lender well below market average. Call today to get all the details! Be one of the first happy home owners. Your new home is just minutes from OWA, Tanger, shopping and dining in Foley and the beach! The SULLIVAN plan is a charming 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 Car garage, comfortable open design home at Magnolia Pines. The kitchen is open to the living and dining area and features an island bar for extra seating and all stainless-steel appliances. The home also has beautiful flooring throughout. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybe

Key facts

• Island bar
• Open design home
• Minutes from owa

Tags

• MAGNOLIA PINES SUBDIVISION
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE
• ISLAND BAR
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN DESIGN HOME
• MINUTES FROM OWA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned for single-family residence
• HOA & community: Annual association dues with management and grounds maintenance; No community features listed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached single-car garage (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities; Total electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction; Faces north and south; Corner, level lot (less than 1 acre)
• Construction: Built with hardboard and wood frame; Fortified Gold construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof with ridge vent; Approximately 1417 square feet (builder source)
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Termite contract; Satellite dish; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main/1st floor with attached bath; Bedroom 2: ~10 x 10; Bedroom 3: ~10 x 10; Bedroom 4: ~10 x 10; Primary bedroom approx. 12 x 12
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric cooling (SEER 14); Total electric
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Ceiling fans; No fireplace; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer area inside; Electric water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $274,040 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,481.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-892/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,831 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,481
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13782 Logan Pl	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	3mo	$272,040	$193	89
13763 Logan Pl	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	4mo	$271,540	$193	88
13816 Shea Cir	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,417 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$194	88
13765 Shea Cir	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	4mo	$250,000	$177	87
13773 Logan Pl	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	4mo	$260,000	$180	81
13772 Logan Pl	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	3mo	$245,000	$163	80
17015 Sugar Loop	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (+4%)	2mo	$250,000	$169	70
13753 Logan Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	3mo	$250,000	$195	69
13742 Logan Pl	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	4mo	$269,524	$210	69
16423 Absalom St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-4%)	2mo	$235,000	$174	69
16377 Mansion St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-6%)	1mo	$259,900	$195	65
13633 Shea Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,205 (-15%)	3mo	$248,900	$207	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-51,733
• Equity at exit: $40,777

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-61,897
• Equity at exit: $23,646

Cash invested: $76,575 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,434
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,102/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,392

Max offer price $262,730

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,370
• Closing costs: $8,204
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	21d	1	0.14mi
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	21d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $274,040 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 9 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 8 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,040 Active New Construction 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-23
    listed $274,040 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,319
• − Property taxes: −$4,102
• − Insurance: −$1,367
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − Depreciation: −$7,956
• Taxable loss: −$5,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,339
• After-tax cash flow: $447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a Smart Home Technology package, fresh paint, and well-maintained landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home Technology package — Includes keyless entry and Skybell, enhancing security and convenience.
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home Technology package — Includes keyless entry and Skybell, enhancing security and convenience. ↑
• Resale Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $274,040 BCAR