340 County Road 411 · Old River-Winfree, TX 77535

$153,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 105 Days on market

Built 1997 1.72 ac lot Est $226k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits on this 1.72-acre property featuring a manufactured home with plenty of potential. Situated on a spacious lot, this property offers room to spread out while providing a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to renovate and create their own country retreat. The manufactured home is in distressed condition and will require repairs, making it an ideal project for those looking to add value. In addition to the home, the property includes a two-car garage and a workshop, offering excellent space for storage, hobbies, or projects. With nearly two acres of land, there is plenty of room for improvements, outdoor living, or future possibilities. Whether you'

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Workshop
• Two-car garage

Tags

• TWO-CAR GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage; Circular driveway; Workshop in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry (First floor rooms listed)
• Construction: Built in 1997; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Corner lot; Has additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; Bonus room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.8% in Old River-Winfree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kimmie M Brown El (math 26% / reading 25%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 845 students, 82% FRL); Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1209 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,230 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
450 County Road 412	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	3mo	$249,900	$168	70
156 County Road 404	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	15mo	$225,000	$160	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,835
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $12,883
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1209
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,012/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,309

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 100 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $153,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $153,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $153,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $153,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $153,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $153,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $153,000
15. 2026-03-05
    listed $160,000 Active
16. 2015-01-29
    soldstatus
17. 2013-03-28
    soldstatus
18. 2009-05-01
    soldstatus
19. 2009-04-24
    historical
20. 2008-10-27
    listed $28,500
21. 1997-06-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,012 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,800 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 39.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,012
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$141
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Old River-Winfree

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+436.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $153,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2015-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-10-27 Listed $28,500 HARMLS
• 1997-06-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,012 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.