5507 Rubin Ave · Baltimore, MD 21215

$139,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Townhouse public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1947 1,656 sqft lot $97/sqft · 38% below area Est $224k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Case 241-933900. This townhome on a dead end street is ready for its new owners. Home features a welcoming front porch, wood flooring throughout. First floor has a Living room, dining room, kitchen and a half bath. Three bedrooms and a full bath are located on the second floor. Basement is partially finished and has another half bath. Wood deck and fenced yard complete this property. See this home today! Available to All Bidders! Built before 1978, Lead Based Paint may be present. Per HUD Appraisal, FHA Financing is available with IE (Insured Escrow), subject to Appraisal. Buyer responsible for payment of transfer tax/ any and all inspections/certifications. HUD Properties are sold AS IS, no repairs allowed prior to closing.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Half bath
• Kitchen

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• WOOD FLOORING
• LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $964 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.15%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,107
• List price: $139,500
• Delta: -37.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5719 Jonquil Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (-5%)	11mo	$245,000	$179	65
3706 Hayward Ave	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,504 (+4%)	8mo	$245,000	$163	64
5423 Jonquil Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,260 (-12%)	8mo	$87,000	$69	64
5424 Jonquil Ave	0.16mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,332 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$150	64
5118 Nelson Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-4%)	3mo	$219,000	$158	61
4105 Newbern Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	10mo	$234,900	$184	57
3916 Hayward Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$237,375	$190	55
5334 Cuthbert Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-11%)	10mo	$199,000	$155	55
5312 Gist Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	4mo	$240,000	$148	53
3223 Spaulding Ave	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+4%)	0mo	$219,900	$147	52
3800 Hayward Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-15%)	6mo	$80,000	$65	51
3208 Ingleside Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+12%)	2mo	$225,000	$139	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,681
• Equity at exit: $20,800

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $38,483
• Equity at exit: $12,061

Cash invested: $39,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21215

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$732
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,803/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,295

Max offer price $139,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,875
• Closing costs: $4,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3912 Mortimer Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,723	$2.26	43d	1	0.11mi
5343 Nelson Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,215	$1.22	24d	1	0.24mi
5340 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.58mi
5301 Maple Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	43d	1	0.63mi
5000 Litchfield Ave #1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.65mi
3638 Fords Ln Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,795	$1.79	43d	1	0.82mi
4828 Beaufort Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,850	$1.54	24d	1	0.84mi
4010 Fernhill Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.85mi
3735 Manchester Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	4d	1	0.86mi
6317 Pearce Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,600	$1.40	43d	1	0.91mi
3705 Midheights Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,900	$1.86	24d	1	0.91mi
3784 Columbus Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,200	$1.76	24d	1	0.94mi
2900 Taney Rd Apt 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	0.95mi
3809 Clarks Ln Unit 301 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,600	$1.51	24d	1	0.98mi
5115 Pembridge Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,150	$1.98	43d	1	1.00mi
3505 Clarks Ln Unit D2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	43d	1	1.02mi
3727 Milford Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	43d	1	1.11mi
3607 Labyrinth Rd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,100	$2.27	19d	5	1.13mi
3807 Bowers Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	43d	1	1.15mi
2432 Everton Rd Unit 2435 A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	1.19mi
3301 Clarks Ln Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	801	$1,345	$1.68	2d	10	1.20mi
6609 Eberle Dr Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,787	$1.77	2d	25	1.23mi
5801 Western Run Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,979	$2.37	2d	7	1.23mi
3617 Mohawk Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	43d	1	1.27mi
3615 Mohawk Ave Gwynn Oak, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,610	$1.61	43d	1	1.27mi
3601 Howard Park Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	43d	1	1.28mi
6310 Greenspring Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1080	$1,940	$1.80	3d	6	1.43mi
4230 Towanda Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	18d	1	1.47mi
2310 Sulgrave Ave Unit 3 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	978	$1,700	$1.74	43d	1	1.48mi
6936 Blanche Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1410	$1,800	$1.28	43d	1	1.49mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	880	$1,724	$1.96	4d	1	1.49mi
3014 Romaric Ct Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	940	$1,709	$1.82	2d	1	1.49mi
2915 Oakford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,600	$1.45	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $139,500 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   HUD Case 241-933900. This townhome on a dead end street is ready for its new owners. Home features a welcoming front porch, wood flooring throughout. First floor has a Living room, dining room, kitchen and a half bath. Three bedrooms and a full bath are located on the second floor. Basement is partially finished and has another half bath. Wood deck and fenced yard complete this property. See this home today! Available to All Bidders! Built before 1978, Lead Based Paint may be present. Per HUD Appraisal, FHA Financing is available with IE (Insured Escrow), subject to Appraisal. Buyer responsible for payment of transfer tax/ any and all inspections/certifications. HUD Properties are sold AS IS, no repairs allowed prior to closing.

2. 2026-03-07
   listed $155,000 Active 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   HUD Case 241-933900. This townhome on a dead end street is ready for its new owners. Home features a welcoming front porch, wood flooring throughout. First floor has a Living room, dining room, kitchen and a half bath. Three bedrooms and a full bath are located on the second floor. Basement is partially finished and has another half bath. Wood deck and fenced yard complete this property. See this home today! Available to All Bidders! Built before 1978, Lead Based Paint may be present. Per HUD Appraisal, FHA Financing is available with IE (Insured Escrow), subject to Appraisal. Buyer responsible for payment of transfer tax/ any and all inspections/certifications. HUD Properties are sold AS IS, no repairs allowed prior to closing.

3. 2025-11-25
   soldstatus $225,339
4. 2010-08-03
   historical Withdrawn
5. 2010-08-03
   historical
6. 2010-05-13
   price
7. 2010-04-05
   listed Active
8. 2010-04-05
   listed $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,803 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,803 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,814
• − Property taxes: −$2,803
• − Insurance: −$698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$4,058
• Taxable income: $3,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$854
• After-tax cash flow: $4,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 52,229
• Household income: $51,587
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3644.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 17% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.58%
• Current HPI: 291.4926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+8.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $139,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $225,339 Public Records
• 2010-08-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-08-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-13 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2010-04-05 Listed — MRIS
• 2010-04-05 Listed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,803 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.