4542 Algernon Dr · Spring, TX 77373

$181,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1981 7,326 sqft lot $134/sqft · 8% below area Est $199k · 8% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home in Spring, TX (77373)! Features a spacious living area with wood flooring and cozy brick fireplace, a bright functional kitchen, and spacious backyard with mature trees-perfect for everyday living. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

Key facts

• Wood flooring
• Functional kitchen
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• LIVING AREA
• WOOD FLOORING
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $182k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#635 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,986 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,551
• List price: $181,900
• Delta: -8.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 Algernon Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	16mo	$205,000	$151	84
4015 Donalbain Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,322 (-3%)	0mo	$168,000	$127	68
23110 Ludgate Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+8%)	13mo	$220,000	$149	66
4106 Donalbain Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-0%)	14mo	$239,999	$177	61
23303 Whittaker Way	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-0%)	12mo	$192,500	$142	56
4806 Quailgate Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-6%)	7mo	$205,000	$160	55
3902 Adonis Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+8%)	13mo	$229,000	$157	49
4515 Hickorygate Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-8%)	16mo	$224,900	$179	48
23811 Firegate Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,362 (+0%)	22mo	$200,000	$147	48
23114 Goodfellow Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+13%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	45
23207 Naples Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+15%)	16mo	$165,000	$106	42
4522 Quailgate Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	20mo	$199,999	$133	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,481
• Equity at exit: $27,122

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,773
• Equity at exit: $15,727

Cash invested: $50,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77373

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$421 /mo · $5,049/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,959

Max offer price $181,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $327	+0% $275	+5% $224	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $93	-5% $184	+0% $275	+5% $367	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $322	base $275	+0.5pp $228	+1.0pp $180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,475
• Closing costs: $5,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $181,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 311-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $181,900 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $181,900 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $181,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $181,900 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $181,900 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $181,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $181,900 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $181,900 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $181,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $181,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $181,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $181,900 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $181,900 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,900 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $188,900 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home in Spring, TX (77373)! Features a spacious living area with wood flooring and cozy brick fireplace, a bright functional kitchen, and spacious backyard with mature trees-perfect for everyday living. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

18. 2026-04-04
    listed $195,900 Active 293-char remark

    Show marketing remark (293 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2 bath home in Spring, TX (77373)! Features a spacious living area with wood flooring and cozy brick fireplace, a bright functional kitchen, and spacious backyard with mature trees-perfect for everyday living. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways.

19. 2009-04-30
    soldstatus
20. 2007-04-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,049 · $421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,049 · $421/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,189
• − Property taxes: −$5,049
• − Insurance: −$1,707
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$5,292
• Taxable income: $657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$158
• After-tax cash flow: $3,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Spring

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #635
• US rank: #12101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 430,529
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,739
• Household income: $88,617
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 23% Two or more races 22% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.98%
• Current HPI: 251.7231
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $188,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $195,900 HARMLS
• 2009-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,049 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.