214 Myrtle Ln · South Mills, NC 27976

$396,160

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 $65/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Clubhouse
• No rear neighbor

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• NO REAR NEIGHBOR
• BEDROOM ON MAIN LEVEL
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $396k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,702 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,080
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Jasmine Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+8%)	4mo	$379,825	$244	75
126 Pampas St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+5%)	3mo	$380,870	$251	69
403 Spencers Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	14mo	$275,000	$182	58
130 Joy's Creek Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,441 (+0%)	9mo	$215,000	$149	57
402 Spencers Ave	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	8mo	$43,000	$27	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-46,448
• Equity at exit: $107,340

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-31,838
• Equity at exit: $123,039

Cash invested: $110,925 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27976

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,078
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$495 /mo · $5,942/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,548

Max offer price $333,196

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,040
• Closing costs: $11,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-02-06
   price $396,160

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

2. 2026-02-06
   status Pending 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

3. 2026-02-06
   status Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

4. 2026-02-06
   price $396,160 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

5. 2026-01-27
   listed $419,990 Active
6. 2026-01-27
   historical
7. 2026-01-19
   price $419,990 17-char remark

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

8. 2026-01-19
   price $419,990

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

9. 2026-01-16
   price $414,990

   Show marketing remark (17 chars)

   ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

10. 2026-01-16
    price $414,990 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

11. 2026-01-14
    price $419,990 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

12. 2026-01-07
    price $419,990
13. 2025-12-02
    price $399,990 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

14. 2025-11-14
    price $399,990
15. 2025-11-13
    price $404,990 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

16. 2025-11-12
    price $404,990
17. 2025-11-06
    price $414,990
18. 2025-10-28
    price $409,990 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

19. 2025-10-22
    price $409,990
20. 2025-10-13
    price $404,990
21. 2025-10-10
    listed $399,990 Active 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    ASPEN. SOLD. TBB.

22. 2025-10-09
    listed $399,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,964
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,191
• − Property taxes: −$5,942
• − Insurance: −$1,981
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,877
• − Management: −$2,877
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$11,525
• Taxable loss: −$12,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,930
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700600
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,622
• Composite: 51.97/100
• National rank: #1643
• State rank: #29 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #22229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Mills, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,237

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,980 people
• By 2030: 11,246 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,562 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 11,572 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 11,450 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 10,648 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.2% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 174.2102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $396,160 REINMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $396,160 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $419,990 REINMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $419,990 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $419,990 REINMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $414,990 REINMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $414,990 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $419,990 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $419,990 REINMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $399,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $399,990 REINMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $404,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $404,990 REINMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $414,990 REINMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $409,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $409,990 REINMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $404,990 REINMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $399,990 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $399,990 REINMLS