18773 Gooseberry Ln · Houston, TX 77365

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.36 ac lot $171/sqft · 29% above area Est $151k · 29% over $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2021 mobile home! With 1164 square feet of inviting living space, this home features three cozy bedrooms and two modern bathrooms. The open floor plan is enhanced by stylish beams across the ceiling, adding a touch of character and warmth. The kitchen is a delight, featuring some farm-style doors on the cabinetry, blending modr4n convenience with rustic charm. Perfect for both relaxing and entertaining, this home offers comfort, style and a welcoming atmosphere. The air conditioner replaced 1/15/2026. All room sizes are approximate, buyer needs to confirm.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 941 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.83%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,689
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 29.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23663 Daffodil Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-7%)	6mo	$155,000	$146	76
23948 Honeysuckle Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+14%)	9mo	$199,000	$154	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,896
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,933
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 941
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,787/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   price $195,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 603-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $197,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    price $199,900 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2021 mobile home! With 1164 square feet of inviting living space, this home features three cozy bedrooms and two modern bathrooms. The open floor plan is enhanced by stylish beams across the ceiling, adding a touch of character and warmth. The kitchen is a delight, featuring some farm-style doors on the cabinetry, blending modr4n convenience with rustic charm. Perfect for both relaxing and entertaining, this home offers comfort, style and a welcoming atmosphere. The air conditioner replaced 1/15/2026. All room sizes are approximate, buyer needs to confirm.

17. 2026-02-09
    price $204,000 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2021 mobile home! With 1164 square feet of inviting living space, this home features three cozy bedrooms and two modern bathrooms. The open floor plan is enhanced by stylish beams across the ceiling, adding a touch of character and warmth. The kitchen is a delight, featuring some farm-style doors on the cabinetry, blending modr4n convenience with rustic charm. Perfect for both relaxing and entertaining, this home offers comfort, style and a welcoming atmosphere. The air conditioner replaced 1/15/2026. All room sizes are approximate, buyer needs to confirm.

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $209,000 Active 590-char remark

    Show marketing remark (590 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2021 mobile home! With 1164 square feet of inviting living space, this home features three cozy bedrooms and two modern bathrooms. The open floor plan is enhanced by stylish beams across the ceiling, adding a touch of character and warmth. The kitchen is a delight, featuring some farm-style doors on the cabinetry, blending modr4n convenience with rustic charm. Perfect for both relaxing and entertaining, this home offers comfort, style and a welcoming atmosphere. The air conditioner replaced 1/15/2026. All room sizes are approximate, buyer needs to confirm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,787 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$782/yr (+$65/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,787
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$397
• After-tax cash flow: $1,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 mobile home is in good condition with modern finishes and a good condition score. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates needed for optimal resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $209,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+119.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,787 · +119.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.