12445 Lookout Loop Unit F16-7 · Truckee, CA 96161

$25,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 2004 0.37 ac lot $8/sqft · 54% above area $869/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy an annual luxury President's Week at Old Greenwood without the expense of full ownership. A fantastic ski week in Tahoe! With fractional ownership, you are guaranteed the 7th week each year in a stunning golf-course home. Owners also benefit from additional flexible time and spontaneous usage opportunities. All maintenance and upkeep are included, along with a membership to the Tahoe Mountain Club. This membership provides access to year-round activities and amenities both on-site and at Northstar, including a pool and fitness center, spa, golf, and a ski lounge. This home is situated on the 10th Fairway of the Jack Nicklaus Championship Golf Course & is near Old Greenwood Pavil

Key facts

• Ski lounge
• Spa
• Golf-course home

Tags

• GOLF-COURSE HOME
• POOL AND FITNESS CENTER
• SPA
• SKI LOUNGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Tennis courts; On-site exercise equipment; Quarterly association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Two covered parking spaces
• Security: Gated entry to subdivision
• Utilities: Water from utility district; Sewer via utility district; Natural gas available
• Home design: Mountain-style architecture; Timeshare property; Two levels; Golf course view
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; On golf course; Landscaped; Hot tub; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Mixed
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central forced air heating (CFAH)
• Interior features: High ceilings; Loft; Great room; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 255.8% vs local median 2.0% in Truckee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#697 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,897/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($132k/yr) (locally 559% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 31.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 255.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 890.95%
• DSCR: 40.64
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,230
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: 54.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12622 Lookout Loop Unit F44-11	0.12mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	4mo	$16,000	$5	91
12540 Gold Rush Trl Unit F40-01	0.11mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	6mo	$12,000	$4	90
12508 Trappers Trl Unit F35-36	0.06mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	10mo	$13,000	$4	89
12278 Frontier Trl Unit F24-07	0.18mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	3mo	$21,000	$7	89
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-13	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	4mo	$15,000	$5	88
12403 Lookout Loop Unit F14-01	0.04mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	8mo	$10,000	$3	86
12258 Lookout Loop Unit F23-07	0.20mi	4/4.5	2,985 (0%)	8mo	$25,000	$8	84
12339 Lookout Loop Unit F11-36	0.10mi	4/4.5	2,895 (-3%)	9mo	$18,000	$6	83
12458 Lookout Loop Unit F36-32	0.05mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,740 (-8%)	9mo	$17,500	$6	68
12382 Caleb Dr	0.18mi	4/3.5	3,405 (+14%)	9mo	$2,750,000	$808	57
11583 Henness Rd	0.70mi	4/4.5	3,121 (+5%)	10mo	$2,900,000	$929	51
10068 Olympic Blvd	0.73mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,750 (-8%)	4mo	$975,000	$355	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 52.02×
• Total profit: $357,170
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 125.35×
• Total profit: $870,485
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96161

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$869
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,658
• Net cashflow: $5,197

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,319

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10175 Annies Loop Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2194	$7,500	$3.42	43d	1	1.00mi
10077 Jake S Way Truckee, CA	3.0	3.5	2552	$10,500	$4.11	43d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $869 · $10,428/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $25,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $25,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $25,000 Active 669-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,582
• − Management: −$7,582
• − HOA: −$10,428
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $66,551
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15,972
• After-tax cash flow: $46,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tahoe-Truckee Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,136
• Composite: 44.38/100
• National rank: #2816
• State rank: #136 of 517 in CA

Livability — Truckee

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #697
• US rank: #21110

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truckee, CA
• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• City population: 19,634
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,634
• Household income: $131,702
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.87%
• Current HPI: 336.9632
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $25,000 TSMLS