28407 Chateau Dr · Daphne, AL 36526-6621

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2011 8,973 sqft lot $183/sqft · 7% below area Est $301k · 7% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated (new carpet in bedrooms and hallway, new laminate flooring in utility, kitchen, and living/dining area, interior walls and cabinets painted) three (3) bedroom two (2) bath home in Bay Branch Villas. The extended back porch (16x19) will be a great area for entertaining and is covered with a metal roof. There are steps going down from the porch to a brick patio (13X17). An 8x10 metal shed is in the fenced back yard. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Metal shed
• Fenced back yard
• Brick patio

Tags

• EXTENDED BACK PORCH
• COVERED WITH A METAL ROOF
• BRICK PATIO
• METAL SHED
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Daphne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#18 in AL, #3,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,096 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,039
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -6.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11103 Pontchartrain Loop	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+1%)	12mo	$280,000	$181	83
28178 Turkey Branch Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+2%)	9mo	$292,000	$187	77
28138 Turkey Branch Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+3%)	10mo	$305,000	$194	73
28531 Shadow Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+7%)	10mo	$356,000	$219	71
11116 Sturbridge Loop	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+3%)	9mo	$272,500	$173	70
103 Hickory Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+0%)	11mo	$245,000	$160	60
109 Shiloh Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-3%)	5mo	$249,000	$168	59
27926 Turkey Branch Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+9%)	6mo	$255,000	$153	59
191 Robbins Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-7%)	3mo	$269,000	$190	52
160 Robbins Blvd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,689 (+11%)	12mo	$295,000	$175	43
117 Geneva Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+8%)	17mo	$255,000	$155	42
116 Braga Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	15mo	$275,000	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $43,046
• Equity at exit: $125,900

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $140,012
• Equity at exit: $194,027

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36526-6621

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27940 Tolbert Ln E Daphne, AL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,450	$1.75	21d	1	0.55mi
28003 State Highway 181 Daphne, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$1,755	$2.11	13d	26	1.21mi
10391 Emmanuel St Daphne, AL	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,795	$1.39	13d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   Beautifully updated (new carpet in bedrooms and hallway, new laminate flooring in utility, kitchen, and living/dining area, interior walls and cabinets painted) three (3) bedroom two (2) bath home in Bay Branch Villas. The extended back porch (16x19) will be a great area for entertaining and is covered with a metal roof. There are steps going down from the porch to a brick patio (13X17). An 8x10 metal shed is in the fenced back yard. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

2. 2026-04-14
   price $280,000 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   Beautifully updated (new carpet in bedrooms and hallway, new laminate flooring in utility, kitchen, and living/dining area, interior walls and cabinets painted) three (3) bedroom two (2) bath home in Bay Branch Villas. The extended back porch (16x19) will be a great area for entertaining and is covered with a metal roof. There are steps going down from the porch to a brick patio (13X17). An 8x10 metal shed is in the fenced back yard. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

3. 2026-03-13
   listed $290,000 Active 491-char remark

   Show marketing remark (491 chars)

   Beautifully updated (new carpet in bedrooms and hallway, new laminate flooring in utility, kitchen, and living/dining area, interior walls and cabinets painted) three (3) bedroom two (2) bath home in Bay Branch Villas. The extended back porch (16x19) will be a great area for entertaining and is covered with a metal roof. There are steps going down from the porch to a brick patio (13X17). An 8x10 metal shed is in the fenced back yard. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
• − Management: −$2,305
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$2,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $2,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Daphne

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #3949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $280,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-13 Listed $290,000 BCAR

Property tax history

+16.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.