1313 10th Ave S · Moorhead, MN 56560

$198,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,549 sqft · SingleFamily · 184 Days on market

Built 1950 7,840 sqft lot $78/sqft · 27% below area Est $272k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to restaurants
• Attached garage

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• 3 SEASON PORCH
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Moorhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#143 in MN, #3,111 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moorhead Public School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #202 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ellen Hopkins Elementary (math 50% / reading 42%, grade D-, #526 of 857 statewide, top 62%, 643 students, 46% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #144 of 258 statewide, top 56%, 2,158 students, 48% FRL); Moorhead High School (math 44% / reading 59%, grade D+, #124 of 471 statewide, top 27%, 1,937 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 269 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $164,341 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,295
• List price: $198,900
• Delta: -26.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-43,354
• Equity at exit: $29,657

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-58,860
• Equity at exit: $17,197

Cash invested: $55,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56560

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,043
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,688/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,814

Max offer price $175,057

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-22	-5% $-79	+0% $-135	+5% $-191	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-265	-5% $-200	+0% $-135	+5% $-70	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-84	base $-135	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,725
• Closing costs: $5,967
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
810 4th Ave S Unit 138 Moorhead, MN	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,325	$0.76	23d	1	0.63mi
1102 28th Ave S Moorhead, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$1,825	$1.55	15d	35	1.11mi
507 10th Ave S Fargo, ND	3.0	1.0	3302	$1,300	$0.39	23d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

2. 2026-04-10
   status Active 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

3. 2026-04-02
   historical Contingent - Inspection 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

4. 2026-01-12
   price $198,900 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

5. 2025-11-21
   price $199,500 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

6. 2025-11-05
   listed $205,000 Active 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   Solid 4 bedroom, 2 bath home with large kitchen and 2 family rooms on main as well as a 3 season porch! 1 stall attached garage, Steel sided, Gas Froced Air & Central Air! Close to schools, shopping, restaurants, and more!!

7. 2018-01-17
   soldstatus $170,000
8. 2015-12-18
   soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,141
• − Property taxes: −$3,688
• − Insurance: −$994
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,578
• − Management: −$1,578
• − Depreciation: −$5,786
• Taxable loss: −$5,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $-409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moorhead Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2721420
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,009
• Composite: 36.83/100
• National rank: #4560
• State rank: #202 of 301 in MN

Livability — Moorhead

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #3111

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moorhead, MN
• County: Clay County · 44,405 people
• City population: 44,405
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 44,405
• Household income: $75,406
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2229.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,880 people
• By 2030: 70,881 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 76,865 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 83,205 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 98,719 · +45.4%
• By 2100: 111,657 · +64.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.2% · R 48.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 16.0pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+8.0 2008: D+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.32%
• Current HPI: 177.038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.41%
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+80.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $198,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $199,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Listed $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,688 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.