1003 W Davis St · Fayette, MO 65248

$129,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Other public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1925 6,480 sqft lot $112/sqft · 12% below area Est $147k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Spacious yard
• Steel siding

Tags

• BUNGALOW HOME
• FAYETTE SCHOOLS
• STEEL SIDING
• HARDWOOD AND LAMINATE FLOORING
• CENTRAL HVAC
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($160/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#133 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fayette R-III (town): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #238 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurence J. Daly Elem. (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #611 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 329 students, 47% FRL); Wm. N. Clark Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 145 students, 43% FRL); Fayette High (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #436 of 521 statewide, top 85%, 189 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in Howard County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howard County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,000 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,369
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -11.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-20,259
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-16,788
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65248

• Home prices YoY: -9.8%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $496/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $50	+0% $13	+5% $-23	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $-26	+0% $13	+5% $53	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $46	base $13	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Shields St Fayette, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	45d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    status Pending 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

18. 2026-04-29
    price $129,900

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

19. 2026-04-29
    price $129,900 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $139,900 Active 189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

21. 2026-03-13
    listed $139,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (189 chars)

    Cute Bungalow home located in Fayette Schools. Steel Siding, lots of updates, hardwood and laminate flooring, Central HVAC. Spacious yard for outdoor fun. Discover all Fayette has to offer!

22. 2018-04-12
    soldstatus
23. 2018-03-05
    listed $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $496 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,260 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$764/yr (+$64/mo · 154.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$496
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$2,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$509
• After-tax cash flow: $669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette R-III
• NCES district ID: 2911990
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,178
• Composite: 28.31/100
• National rank: #6784
• State rank: #238 of 324 in MO

Livability — Fayette

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #7727

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayette, MO
• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Howard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,041 people
• By 2030: 9,994 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 9,780 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 9,482 · -5.6%
• By 2075: 9,009 · -10.3%
• By 2100: 8,332 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scottish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Howard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.1% · R 71.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.28%
• Current HPI: 223.4974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+170.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — CBORMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $129,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $129,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $139,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $139,900 CBORMLS
• 2018-04-12 Sold (MLS) — CMBR
• 2018-03-05 Listed $48,000 CMBR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $496 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.