33459 Wild Cherry · Running Springs, CA 92341

$265,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1961 3,780 sqft lot $283/sqft · 18% below area Est $323k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled among giant Sequoia Redwood trees and seasonal creek you will find these cute1961 cabin with 936 square feet of living space and 3,780 Sq Ft lot. This cabin includes 2 bedrooms, 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and a large sleeping loft. Amenities are double pane windows, storage room, large level parking and new back deck. Enter the first level and you'll find an open sunny kitchen, big dining room with two large windows, living room with a cast-iron wood burning stove, one large bedroom and bath. The second level offers a large loft with two twin-beds and a large playhouse with full size bed, second bedroom and a remodel quarter bath. This property sleeps 8 guests. Enjoy the beautiful back yard under the canopy of the majestic redwood trees, the sound of the chirping birds and running creek. The cabin is situated within walking distance of the lake, grocery store restaurants and miles of forest trails.

Key facts

• Remodel quarter bath
• Seasonal creek
• Double pane windows

Tags

• SEQUOIA REDWOOD TREES
• SEASONAL CREEK
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• LARGE SLEEPING LOFT
• CAST-IRON WOOD BURNING STOVE
• REMODEL QUARTER BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($444/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Running Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#333 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $265k implies a 232% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,157 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,632
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -17.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33480 Weeping Willow Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+7%)	6mo	$285,000	$285	81
559 Beechnut Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	896 (-4%)	6mo	$299,000	$334	79
732 Tulip Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0	864 (-8%)	5mo	$349,000	$404	71
33382 Squirrel Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,002 (+7%)	9mo	$315,000	$314	70
33427 Wild Cherry Dr	0.04mi	2/1.0	868 (-7%)	20mo	$280,000	$323	69
664 Yukon Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0	810 (-14%)	2mo	$335,000	$414	69
33794 Meadow Ln	0.42mi	2/1.0	900 (-4%)	9mo	$312,500	$347	67
33294 Wild Rose Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	868 (-7%)	11mo	$307,000	$354	65
577 Oak Knoll Cir	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (-6%)	18mo	$290,000	$328	65
33168 Maple Ln	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,042 (+11%)	2mo	$340,000	$326	62
33003 Juniper Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,020 (+9%)	10mo	$435,000	$426	46
32972 Juniper Ln	0.60mi	1/1.0 (-1)	810 (-14%)	20mo	$310,000	$383	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,606
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-32,410
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92341

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,900/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33424 Holcomb Creek Dr Unit NA Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	1d	1	0.11mi
558 Beechnut Dr Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	1d	1	0.12mi
691 Yukon Dr Unit B Green Valley Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$3,000	$3.57	1d	1	0.13mi
33529 Green Valley Lake Rd Green Valley Lake, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	11d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $265,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    listed $270,000 Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    Nestled among giant Sequoia Redwood trees and seasonal creek you will find these cute1961 cabin with 936 square feet of living space and 3,780 Sq Ft lot. This cabin includes 2 bedrooms, 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms and a large sleeping loft. Amenities are double pane windows, storage room, large level parking and new back deck. Enter the first level and you'll find an open sunny kitchen, big dining room with two large windows, living room with a cast-iron wood burning stove, one large bedroom and bath. The second level offers a large loft with two twin-beds and a large playhouse with full size bed, second bedroom and a remodel quarter bath. This property sleeps 8 guests. Enjoy the beautiful back yard under the canopy of the majestic redwood trees, the sound of the chirping birds and running creek. The cabin is situated within walking distance of the lake, grocery store restaurants and miles of forest trails.

16. 2022-08-25
    historical
17. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus $79,900 Closed
18. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus $79,900
19. 2012-03-20
    status Pending
20. 2012-03-14
    price $79,900
21. 2012-03-03
    listed $94,900 Active
22. 2012-03-02
    listed $79,900
23. 2012-02-27
    historical
24. 2011-12-07
    price $94,900
25. 2011-12-07
    status Active
26. 2011-08-09
    historical
27. 2011-07-20
    price $105,000
28. 2011-06-02
    price $119,990
29. 2011-03-11
    listed $138,030 Active
30. 2011-01-30
    historical
31. 2010-12-15
    price $92,000
32. 2010-08-26
    price $94,000
33. 2010-06-29
    listed $99,000 Active
34. 2008-05-09
    listed $204,000
35. 2004-12-17
    soldstatus $146,500
36. 2004-12-10
    soldstatus $146,500
37. 2003-07-17
    listed $149,000
38. 1994-04-14
    soldstatus $80,000
39. 1988-12-30
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,900 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥83°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,900
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$4,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$980
• After-tax cash flow: $1,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Running Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #11396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 299

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Asian 20% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Polish 13% Italian 5% Russian 4%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Vietnamese 20% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.04%
• Current HPI: 369.4917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+373.7% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $270,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $79,900 MRCAOR
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $79,900 CRMLS
• 2012-03-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-03-14 Price Changed $79,900 CRMLS
• 2012-03-03 Listed $94,900 CRMLS
• 2012-03-02 Listed $79,900 MRCAOR
• 2012-02-27 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-12-07 Price Changed $94,900 CRMLS
• 2011-12-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2011-08-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-07-20 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2011-06-02 Price Changed $119,990 CRMLS
• 2011-03-11 Listed $138,030 CRMLS
• 2011-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-12-15 Price Changed $92,000 CRMLS
• 2010-08-26 Price Changed $94,000 CRMLS
• 2010-06-29 Listed $99,000 CRMLS
• 2008-05-09 Listed $204,000 CRMLS
• 2004-12-17 Sold (MLS) $146,500 CRMLS
• 2004-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $146,500 Public Records
• 2003-07-17 Listed $149,000 CRMLS
• 1994-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1988-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,900 · -29.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.