10567 N Dogwood Rd · Florence, AZ 85132

$339,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,001 sqft · Land · 154 Days on market

Built 2025 1.25 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover country living with modern style in this brand-new 2025 Clayton Triumph manufactured home! Featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and 2,001 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space, this home offers plenty of room for everyone. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan with a spacious living area, modern kitchen with a large island, sleek black matching appliances and split master suite for added privacy. The Triumph plan is known for its smart layout —perfect for families, guests, or anyone looking for space to spread out. Situated on 1.247 acres, you'll enjoy peace and privacy. Property has a large patio and plenty of room for your toys, animals, or future shop. Includ

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 154 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank (septic in & connected)
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other construction materials
• Exterior features: Natural desert front; Natural desert back; Wire fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Full bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-541 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence K-8 (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #742 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 771 students, 56% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,855 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-93,418
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-141,097
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $261,614

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $339,900 Pending 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $339,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $339,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $339,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $339,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 150 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $339,900 Under Contract Accepting Backups 149 DOM
7. 2026-04-21
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
8. 2026-03-23
   price $339,900
9. 2026-02-12
   price $349,900
10. 2026-01-02
    listed $364,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$12,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,038
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $339,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $364,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $69 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.