12807 24th Street Cir E · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,615 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2014 10,245 sqft lot Est $431k · 10% under $106/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* New A/C 3/2026! * Located on a quiet pond homesite within River Plantation, this newer-built Medallion Home offers quality construction, thoughtful design, and comfortable Florida living on one of the community’s desirable streets. Situated on a spacious nearly ¼-acre lot, the property provides added privacy and room to enjoy both indoor and outdoor living. The home features an open and inviting floor plan with vaulted ceilings, custom architectural niches, and a desirable split-bedroom layout ideal for families, guests, or flexible living arrangements. The open kitchen with breakfast bar overlooks the main living and dining areas, creating a welcoming space for everyday liv

Key facts

• Peaceful pond views
• Community amenities
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• EXTENDED SCREENED LANAI
• PEACEFUL POND VIEWS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• RESORT-STYLE COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Quarterly association fee listed; Total acreage under 1/4 acre (about 0.24 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Sentry Management; Monthly HOA approximately $106 (quarterly fee noted $318); Association approval required; Community clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis courts, sidewalks, street lights; Association-owned recreation and deed restrictions; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking (community restriction); Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; High-speed internet available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1 story (one level)
• Exterior features: Covered patio and rear porch; Front porch; Patio; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Pond waterfront with approximately 65 feet of frontage; Landscaped with trees; Asphalt road with public maintenance; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Open floorplan with living/dining combo; Vaulted ceilings; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,554 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $431,205
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12823 24th Street Cir E	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-0%)	1mo	$375,000	$233	96
12847 24th Street Cir E	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,615 (0%)	2mo	$440,000	$272	93
12844 24th Street Cir E	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-0%)	4mo	$440,000	$274	92
2419 129th Ave E	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,594 (-1%)	1mo	$425,000	$267	89
12719 24th Street Cir E	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,602 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$218	89
12815 24th Street Cir E	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+2%)	10mo	$377,500	$230	88
12830 24th Street Cir E	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+2%)	10mo	$441,000	$269	82
13209 22nd Ct E	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+1%)	1mo	$508,000	$312	80
12848 24th Street Cir E	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-4%)	14mo	$460,000	$296	78
12851 24th Street Cir E	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (+13%)	8mo	$379,000	$207	61
2820 124th Ave E	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,836 (+14%)	1mo	$465,000	$253	60
2924 122nd Pl E	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,830 (+13%)	2mo	$359,900	$197	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-75,870
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-106,275
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,146 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,697/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$106
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,213

Max offer price $380,554

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2910 122nd Ter E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$3,300	$1.80	24d	1	0.62mi
3511 Wild Blossom Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	12d	1	0.98mi
3775 Manorwood Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	2122	$3,300	$1.56	16d	1	1.05mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $106 · $1,272/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $390,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-03-02
    listed $390,000 Active
15. 2013-12-06
    soldstatus $1,820,000
16. 2012-07-03
    soldstatus $2,144,650
17. 2012-04-03
    soldstatus $2,215,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,697 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,237 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$540/yr (+$45/mo · 20.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$2,697
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,020
• − Management: −$3,020
• − HOA: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$7,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,777
• After-tax cash flow: $1,135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-82.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-02 Listed $390,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $1,820,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,144,650 Public Records
• 2012-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $2,215,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,697 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.