1906 Croell Ave · Tiffin, IA 52340

$307,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction interior zero-lot with functional layout and modern finishes. * Photos of Similar Property * This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home offers an open main level with an L-shaped kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances and a breakfast bar adjacent to the dining and living areas. Sliding door leads to a patio and open backyard with expansive views backing up to Veritas Church—no rear neighbors for a sense of space and privacy. The main floor also includes a convenient powder room and a combined mud/laundry room off the garage entry. Upstairs you'll find three bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet and double vanity en suite. A full hall bath serves the

Key facts

• L-shaped kitchen
• Functional layout
• Patio

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• L-SHAPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PATIO
• OPEN BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $307,500 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,630.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Tiffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#220 in IA, #4,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek Amana Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #72 of 289 in IA (top 25%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 714 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (158 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,423 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,630
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1906 Croell Ave	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,739 (0%)	1mo	$307,500	$177	99
1922 Croell Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,739 (0%)	0mo	$307,500	$177	98
1904 Croell Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,739 (0%)	3mo	$307,500	$177	96
500 Elizabeth Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,802 (+4%)	1mo	$315,000	$175	86
1100 Creekside Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+4%)	2mo	$307,500	$170	64
1008 Creekside Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+4%)	0mo	$305,000	$169	61
1028 Creekside Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,811 (+4%)	2mo	$302,500	$167	61
910 Hillside Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,811 (+4%)	1mo	$306,000	$169	58
531 Bear Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,579 (-9%)	0mo	$285,000	$180	50
295 Hickory Ct	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (-6%)	4mo	$260,000	$159	46
716 Croell Ave	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,924 (+11%)	0mo	$300,000	$156	44
812 Croell Ave	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,993 (+15%)	1mo	$339,000	$170	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,000
• Equity at exit: $44,079

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-54,767
• Equity at exit: $25,561

Cash invested: $82,776 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52340

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,434/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,586

Max offer price $281,698

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,908
• Closing costs: $8,869
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
628 Catherine Dr Tiffin, IA	3.0	3.5	1795	$2,350	$1.31	13d	1	0.43mi
630 Catherine Dr Tiffin, IA	3.0	3.5	1795	$2,350	$1.31	13d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   listed $307,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,560
• − Property taxes: −$4,434
• − Insurance: −$1,478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − Depreciation: −$8,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,496
• After-tax cash flow: $341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek Amana Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907590
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,915
• Composite: 63.92/100
• National rank: #586
• State rank: #72 of 289 in IA

Livability — Tiffin

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #4085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tiffin, IA
• County: Johnson County · 132,710 people
• City population: 6,128
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,128
• Household income: $98,393
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,405 people
• By 2030: 200,014 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 241,428 · +33.8%
• By 2050: 288,144 · +59.7%
• By 2075: 420,009 · +132.8%
• By 2100: 546,596 · +203.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, United Kingdom, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.1) · D 68.4% · R 30.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.5pp · 2024: 38.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.1 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+38.3 2012: D+35.4 2008: D+41.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.59%
• Current HPI: 172.251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — ICAARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $307,500 ICAARMLS