14010 Longstreet Rd #4 · Willis, TX 77318

$749,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,098 sqft · MultiFamily · 153 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,000 sqft lot Garage $285/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

The Vintage at Lake Conroe is a rare live-in-one, rent-two opportunity in one of Willis's fastest-growing corridors. Nestled within a secure, gated community of 60 buildings near Lake Conroe and just 7 minutes from I-45, this three-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom property delivers the accessibility tenants demand and the income potential investors seek. Each unit is thoughtfully designed with an open-concept kitchen, granite countertops, and all appliances included ready for tenants from day one. Enjoy the comfort of front and back porches, a private garage, and two dedicated parking spaces per unit.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open-concept kitchen
• Private garage

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ALL APPLIANCES INCLUDED
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• PRIVATE GARAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $749,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $790,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $749k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $736k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $680k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $659k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C C Hardy El (math 32% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 752 students, 83% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1718 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,800/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($659k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $659,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $790,000
• List price: $749,000
• Delta: -5.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14010 Longstreet Rd #1	0.00mi	3/2.0	4,098 (0%)	7mo	$790,000	$193	90
14905 Oak Shrs	1.11mi	3/3.0	4,011 (-2%)	17mo	$2,300,000	$573	47
14696 Hillshire Dr	1.03mi	4/4.5 (+1)	4,136 (+1%)	15mo	$1,750,000	$423	40
14155 Lakepoint Dr	1.34mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,558 (-13%)	1mo	$275,000	$77	35
14330 Gemini Blvd	1.03mi	3/3.5	3,233 (-21%)	8mo	$710,000	$220	32
12786 Aries Loop	1.01mi	3/2.5	3,536 (-14%)	11mo	$995,000	$281	31
13300 Hidden Trail Ct	0.53mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,492 (-15%)	16mo	$825,000	$236	30
12160 Lake Vista Dr	1.39mi	4/4.5 (+1)	4,243 (+4%)	23mo	$1,850,000	$436	29
14103 Lakepoint Dr	1.35mi	4/4.0 (+1)	4,512 (+10%)	20mo	$750,000	$166	23
14096 Lakepoint Dr	1.41mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,151 (-23%)	14mo	$1,000,000	$317	21
15152 Paradise View Dr	1.19mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,310 (-19%)	12mo	$1,295,000	$391	21
13974 Jamaica Cir	1.36mi	3/3.5	3,460 (-16%)	23mo	$560,000	$162	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-151,462
• Equity at exit: $117,792

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-161,312
• Equity at exit: $68,305

Cash invested: $221,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $774,500 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Active inventory: 1718
• Price-to-rent: 36.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,800 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$988 /mo · $11,850/yr
• Insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,428
• Net cashflow: $-373

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	3	2	$6,800
Total (4 units)			$6,800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,272

Max offer price $736,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $-100	+0% $-373	+5% $-645	+10% $-918
Rent	-10% $-910	-5% $-641	+0% $-373	+5% $-104	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-172	base $-373	+0.5pp $-577	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $197,500
• Closing costs: $23,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 202B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,595	$1.17	36d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 7A Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,569	$1.15	38d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 202A Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,695	$1.24	28d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 7A Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,569	$1.15	43d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 7B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,619	$1.19	18d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 202C Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,695	$1.24	20d	1	0.03mi
14010 Longstreet Rd Unit 7C Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1366	$1,569	$1.15	3d	1	0.03mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	112d	1	0.60mi
13349 Bunker Hill Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$1,800	$1.05	184d	1	1.12mi
12994 Centaurus Ct Willis, TX	2.0	2.0	1336	$1,600	$1.20	46d	1	1.15mi
12970 Centaurus Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,850	$1.11	121d	1	1.16mi
12757 Lake Conroe Hills Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,800	$1.07	184d	1	1.18mi
14541 Enchanted Waters Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,199	$0.89	10d	1	1.18mi
12972 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1749	$2,000	$1.14	6d	1	1.19mi
12983 Skyline Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$2,250	$1.33	158d	1	1.20mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	184d	1	1.20mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,650	$1.03	63d	1	1.21mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	144d	1	1.21mi
13285 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,466	$0.88	184d	1	1.22mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,395	$1.00	1d	1	1.23mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	144d	1	1.23mi
13361 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,335	$0.99	10d	1	1.26mi
13223 Lake Breeze Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,746	$1.20	63d	1	1.27mi
12678 Lake Conroe Hills Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,795	$1.20	9d	1	1.31mi
13470 Miller Ln Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,795	$1.17	73d	1	1.33mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by VIG Real Management LLCAnnual association fee of $3,420Association fee includes insurance, recreation facilities, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: CarportGarage with garage door opener
• Security: Leased security systemFire alarm
• Utilities: Cable availableElectricity availableWater available
• Home design: Residential income propertyNew constructionProperty faces unspecified
• Construction: Cement siding and wood sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2025
• Exterior features: PatioPartial fencingPlayground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: PlankVinylCarpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupDryer hookup

HOA detail $285/mo · $3,420/yr

• Likely covers: security

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $749,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $749,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $749,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $749,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $749,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $749,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $749,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $749,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $749,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $749,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $749,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $749,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $749,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $749,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $749,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $749,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $749,000 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $749,000 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $749,000 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $749,000 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $749,000 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $749,000 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $749,000 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $749,000 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $749,000 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $749,000 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $749,000 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $749,000 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $749,000 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $749,000 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $749,000 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $749,000 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $749,000 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $749,000 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $749,000 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $749,000 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $749,000 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $749,000 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $749,000 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $749,000 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $749,000 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $749,000 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $749,000 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $749,000 Active 108 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $749,000 Active 107 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $749,000 Active 106 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $749,000 Active 105 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $749,000 Active 104 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $749,000 Active 103 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,252
• − Property taxes: −$11,850
• − Insurance: −$3,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,528
• − Management: −$6,528
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$22,982
• Taxable loss: −$17,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,298
• After-tax cash flow: $-172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This multi-family property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great opportunity for investors with potential for significant value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replacing carpet with hardwood or tile flooring — Hardwood or tile flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances in the kitchen — Modern appliances can attract more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the property more attractive to buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary C C Hardy El F TX #2,464/4,322 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by VIG Real Management LLCAnnual association fee of $3,420Association fee includes insurance, recreation facilities, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: CarportGarage with garage door opener
• Security: Leased security systemFire alarm
• Utilities: Cable availableElectricity availableWater available
• Home design: Residential income propertyNew constructionProperty faces unspecified
• Construction: Cement siding and wood sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2025
• Exterior features: PatioPartial fencingPlayground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three 3-bedroom units
• Flooring: PlankVinylCarpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupDryer hookup

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $790,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $790,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $790,000 HARMLS