6445 N Cherrytree Ter · Hernando, FL 34442

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,234 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1971 9,600 sqft lot Est $170k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 1,434 sq ft under roof, providing comfortable and versatile living space with plenty of room for a home office or playroom. Designed for a peaceful, low-maintenance lifestyle, the home is conveniently located near Hwy 200 for easy access to Ocala’s shopping and medical facilities, as well as Crystal River. Enjoy being close to beautiful natural areas ideal for hiking, kayaking, and fishing. Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Conveniently located
• 9,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1971

Tags

• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO NATURAL AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; No lease restrictions indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; West-facing
• Construction: Metal siding and stucco exterior; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 80 x 120 lot (approximately 0.22 acres)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $115k implies a 187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.26%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,292
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6589 N Sourgum Ter	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+9%)	4mo	$186,000	$138	66
6570 N Tamarind Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+5%)	20mo	$175,000	$135	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $15,986
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $58,499
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,371/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-01-15
    listed $114,900 Active
12. 2025-10-31
    historical
13. 2025-09-14
    price $129,000
14. 2025-06-04
    price $159,000
15. 2025-04-21
    listed $169,000 Active
16. 2023-11-30
    soldstatus $40,000
17. 1982-12-01
    soldstatus $18,888

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,371 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,371
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $4,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $5,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+508.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1982-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,888 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,371 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.