8463 FM 2606 · Jolly, TX 76365

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1998

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bed 2 bath Lake Home on 1.21 acres. 250 gallon propane tank Lot fee is $2,500 a year If you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re looking for peace and quiet this property maybe what you & acirc; & euro; & trade; re looking for!! Needs exterior paint Contact 817-266-8944

Key facts

• Built 1998
• Listed 19 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Henrietta ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #219 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.70%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,752
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $26,925
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76365

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 266-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    listed $90,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$515
• After-tax cash flow: $2,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrietta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822980
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,029
• Composite: 40.62/100
• National rank: #3691
• State rank: #219 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jolly

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #501
• US rank: #9959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,668

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,537 people
• By 2030: 9,042 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 8,090 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 7,255 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 5,834 · -38.8%
• By 2100: 4,491 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.7) · D 9.9% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -58.6pp · 2024: -79.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.7 2020: R+77.6 2016: R+76.6 2012: R+69.7 2008: R+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.62%
• Current HPI: 158.1207
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $90,000 FSBO.com