20843 Waalew Spc 138 · Apple Valley, CA 92307

$109,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 2003 Fair condition $71/sqft · 19% above area Est $93k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

''DRASTICALY REDUCED PRICE'' ''MUST SEE IN SIDE GORGEOUS HOME YOU WILL LOVE'' Beautiful Manufactured home, open floor plan. Well appointed kitchen with all appliance included in sale Large master bed room with walk in closet. car port. Park has Private Fishing lake 2 club house, 3 pool's. 2 spas Tennis court, Basket ball court. With in min to major restaurant's and shopping, Apple valley golf course Big Bear Lake, hiking, snow skiing, winter sports. financing available to qualfied buyer. Must qualify for park rent

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2003
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Los Ranchos; Lot features roughly 0–1 unit per acre; Location coordinates available
• Financial info: Land lease amount reported as $979 monthly
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Land lease with monthly fee (seller reported); Rent/includes: trash and sewer

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Los Ranchos park
• Utilities: Public/district water; Sewer or septic (unknown)
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry at main level; Mobile home (28 x 60) — mobile home remains
• Construction: Year built from public records
• Exterior features: Front porch; Community pool; Community lake and park

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Bedrooms: Entry on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 3.5% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#532 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Apple Valley Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #955 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,684/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 1069% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $110k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,349 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.79%
• DSCR: 4.73
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $92,797
• List price: $109,999
• Delta: 18.54%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20843 WAALEW Rd Unit C48	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	4mo	$135,000	$89	91
20843 Waalew Rd #C136	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,593 (+3%)	2mo	$110,710	$69	89
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C83	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	3mo	$92,000	$61	88
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C60	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,549 (0%)	9mo	$120,000	$77	87
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C116	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,529 (-1%)	9mo	$160,000	$105	85
20843 Waalew Rd Unit C80	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	9mo	$140,000	$93	83
20843 Waalew Unit C34	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+8%)	0mo	$45,000	$27	80
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B169	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-2%)	0mo	$108,000	$71	79
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B2	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-4%)	9mo	$65,000	$44	72
20683 Waalew Rd Unit B4	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+4%)	10mo	$67,500	$42	72
20683 Waalew SPC B54 Rd Unit B54	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	9mo	$130,600	$91	68
20843 Waalew Rd #12	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	12mo	$89,999	$67	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $128,621
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.6%
• Equity multiple: 11.69×
• Total profit: $329,271
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92307

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$137 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$774
• Net cashflow: $2,151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $109,999

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,227	-5% $2,189	+0% $2,151	+5% $2,113	+10% $2,075
Rent	-10% $1,859	-5% $2,005	+0% $2,151	+5% $2,296	+10% $2,442
Rate	-1.0pp $2,206	-0.5pp $2,179	base $2,151	+0.5pp $2,122	+1.0pp $2,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16100 Navajo Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,450	$1.53	25d	1	1.40mi
16100 Navajo Rd Apple Valley, CA	4.0	2.5	1600	$7,900	$4.94	19d	1	1.40mi
20414 Zuni Rd Unit 1 Apple Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $109,999 Pending Sale 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,999 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,999 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,999 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,999 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,999 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,999 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,999 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,999 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,999 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,999 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,999 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,999 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,999 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,999 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    status Pending Sale 463-char remark
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $109,999 Active 463-char remark
18. 2026-04-28
    historical $109,999 463-char remark
19. 2011-07-28
    soldstatus $30,000 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ''DRASTICALY REDUCED PRICE'' ''MUST SEE IN SIDE GORGEOUS HOME YOU WILL LOVE'' Beautiful Manufactured home, open floor plan. Well appointed kitchen with all appliance included in sale Large master bed room with walk in closet. car port. Park has Private Fishing lake 2 club house, 3 pool's. 2 spas Tennis court, Basket ball court. With in min to major restaurant's and shopping, Apple valley golf course Big Bear Lake, hiking, snow skiing, winter sports. financing available to qualfied buyer. Must qualify for park rent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥100°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,537
• − Management: −$3,537
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $25,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,139
• After-tax cash flow: $19,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and kitchen to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major kitchen cabinets — Old and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — Small and outdated
• Major flooring — Worn-out and in need of replacement
• Major interior paint — Peeling and outdated colors

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both replace flooring — Improves living space and value
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and adds value
• Both paint interior — Enhances interior and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · Old and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · Small and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn-out and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Peeling and outdated colors	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both replace flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes bathrooms and adds value ↑
• Both paint interior — Enhances interior and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apple Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600017
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,264
• Composite: 30.91/100
• National rank: #11351
• State rank: #955 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #17800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 83,889
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,180
• Household income: $77,106
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1069.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 22% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.21%
• Current HPI: 347.8498
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $109,999 CRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $109,999 CRMLS
• 2011-07-28 Sold (MLS) $30,000 CRMLS