100 Nohea Kai Dr Unit 9406 51-1 · Kaanapali, HI 96761

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · Condo public records · 171 Days on market

Built 2007 $219/sqft · 151% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 3/52 undivided interest fee simple deed for apartment number 9406 (room no. 9305/06) in the Napili Tower at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club with fixed time usage rights for weeks 51, 52 and 1 every year. These usage rights entitle the owner to a guaranteed reservation for the 21 consecutive nights checking in on the first Saturday prior to Christmas Eve every year in the same fixed 2BR/2BA unit on the 9th floor of the Napili Tower. There are only four 2BR units in the Napili Tower with both fixed time usage rights and fixed unit rights, two each on the 9th and 10th floors (see unit map in photos). All other 2BR units have floating unit rights. First year of occupancy is 2026 with a reservation for 12/19/26 - 1/9/27. Price does not include 2026 HOA dues of approx. $11,408.04 already paid by Seller which will be reimbursed by Buyer at close of escrow. Sleeps 8 guests. Central A/C. All utilites, property taxes and reserves for regular remodel and refurnishing cycles included in HOA dues. No resort fees or self parking fees. Daily housekeeping a la carte. Master Bedroom - King Size bed, flat screen smart TV and private Ocean Front lanai with two chairs. Master Bathroom - Two vanities, jacuzzi tub, walk-in shower and toilet. Guest Bedroom/Bathroom (can be locked-off as separate reservation with separate entrance) - King Size bed, pull-out sofa sleeper, flat screen smart TV, private Ocean Front lanai with two chairs, kitchenette with fridge, microwave, sink, bathroom with single vanity, shower/tub combo and toilet. Kitchen - full size fridge and freezer, stove, oven, dishwasher, full utensils, cookware, dishes, closet with washer/dryer. Living Area - flat screen smart TV, pull out sleeper sofa. Dining Area - seats eight at table and two chairs at bar. For comprehensive information on resort amenities and photos of the villas, please visit the Marriott web site at this link: https://www.marriott.com/en-us/hotels/hnmmu-marriotts-maui-ocean-club-lahaina-and-napili-towers/photos/

Key facts

• Full size fridge
• Sleeps 8 guests
• Ocean front lanai

Tags

• OCEAN FRONT LANAI
• CENTRAL A C
• FULL SIZE FRIDGE
• KITCHENETTE WITH FRIDGE
• SLEEPS 8 GUESTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#19 in HI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: King Kamehameha Iii Elementary School (math 41% / reading 51%, grade D-, #68 of 183 statewide, top 37%, 607 students, 40% FRL); Lahaina Intermediate School (math 19% / reading 42%, grade F, #27 of 42 statewide, top 63%, 647 students, 51% FRL); Lahainaluna High School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #30 of 43 statewide, top 76%, 1,037 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 643 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 906 units permitted in Maui County in 2024 (289 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,371/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($101k/yr) (locally 835% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maui County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.23%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,091
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: 142.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $64,738
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $207,692
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96761

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 643
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$918
• Net cashflow: $1,622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,805	-5% $1,714	+0% $1,622	+5% $1,530	+10% $1,439
Rent	-10% $1,277	-5% $1,449	+0% $1,622	+5% $1,795	+10% $1,967
Rate	-1.0pp $1,755	-0.5pp $1,689	base $1,622	+0.5pp $1,553	+1.0pp $1,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Puu Anoano St #1701 Lahaina, HI	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,500	$3.67	5d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $265,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2025-12-31
    listed $265,000 Active 2011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2011 chars)

    This is a 3/52 undivided interest fee simple deed for apartment number 9406 (room no. 9305/06) in the Napili Tower at Marriott's Maui Ocean Club with fixed time usage rights for weeks 51, 52 and 1 every year. These usage rights entitle the owner to a guaranteed reservation for the 21 consecutive nights checking in on the first Saturday prior to Christmas Eve every year in the same fixed 2BR/2BA unit on the 9th floor of the Napili Tower. There are only four 2BR units in the Napili Tower with both fixed time usage rights and fixed unit rights, two each on the 9th and 10th floors (see unit map in photos). All other 2BR units have floating unit rights. First year of occupancy is 2026 with a reservation for 12/19/26 - 1/9/27. Price does not include 2026 HOA dues of approx. $11,408.04 already paid by Seller which will be reimbursed by Buyer at close of escrow. Sleeps 8 guests. Central A/C. All utilites, property taxes and reserves for regular remodel and refurnishing cycles included in HOA dues. No resort fees or self parking fees. Daily housekeeping a la carte. Master Bedroom - King Size bed, flat screen smart TV and private Ocean Front lanai with two chairs. Master Bathroom - Two vanities, jacuzzi tub, walk-in shower and toilet. Guest Bedroom/Bathroom (can be locked-off as separate reservation with separate entrance) - King Size bed, pull-out sofa sleeper, flat screen smart TV, private Ocean Front lanai with two chairs, kitchenette with fridge, microwave, sink, bathroom with single vanity, shower/tub combo and toilet. Kitchen - full size fridge and freezer, stove, oven, dishwasher, full utensils, cookware, dishes, closet with washer/dryer. Living Area - flat screen smart TV, pull out sleeper sofa. Dining Area - seats eight at table and two chairs at bar. For comprehensive information on resort amenities and photos of the villas, please visit the Marriott web site at this link: https://www.marriott.com/en-us/hotels/hnmmu-marriotts-maui-ocean-club-lahaina-and-napili-towers/photos/

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,196
• − Management: −$4,196
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable income: $16,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,890
• After-tax cash flow: $15,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Kaanapali

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #6248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kaanapali, HI
• County: Maui County · 114,195 people
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• Population (ZIP): 20,952
• Household income: $101,123
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 835.0

Population outlook (Maui County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 185,013 people
• By 2030: 194,315 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 210,917 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 226,396 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 270,475 · +46.2%
• By 2100: 316,825 · +71.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Asian 29% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 13% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 12% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maui

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.9) · D 61.9% · R 36.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.3pp toward R · 2008: 55.2pp · 2024: 25.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.9 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+38.6 2012: D+50.3 2008: D+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.68%
• Current HPI: 389.2894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.97%
• Metro: Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-31 Listed $265,000 RAM MLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $38,655 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.