2903 Roslyn Dr · Middletown, OH 45044

$154,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1955 0.26 ac lot Est $146k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please read attached doc before submitting an offer. Seller addendum required. Info believed accurate not warranted. Rely on your own inspections. This sale is subject to sellers ability in conveying insurable title

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Detached garage
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• GREAT MIDDLETOWN LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Water at street; Gas at street; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Ranch-style single-family home; One story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Vinyl windows; Shingle roof; Residential zoning; Lot about 0.259 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 12 x 9
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on main level) — Primary bedroom ~12 x 12; Bedrooms 2 and 3 ~12 x 8
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Gas water heating
• Interior features: Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (~4 x 9)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-690/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $155k implies a 674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,740 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.21%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,064
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1505 Pershing Ave	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+6%)	2mo	$155,000	$179	79
3107 Judy Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	864 (+6%)	1mo	$115,500	$134	76
1309 Oxford State Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0	792 (-3%)	4mo	$170,000	$215	75
3210 Finley St	0.45mi	3/1.0	860 (+5%)	2mo	$139,900	$163	68
1617 Pershing Ave	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (+6%)	10mo	$70,000	$81	64
3220 Finley St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (+3%)	5mo	$154,000	$183	63
3103 Roslyn Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (-11%)	10mo	$136,900	$189	60
2008 Pearl St	0.70mi	3/1.0	786 (-4%)	9mo	$89,900	$114	53
2215 Pearl St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	794 (-3%)	11mo	$165,900	$209	53
3117 Finley St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	6mo	$110,900	$154	53
2220 Yankee Rd	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	753 (-8%)	4mo	$160,000	$212	48
1713 Lafayette Ave	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+12%)	8mo	$80,000	$88	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-22,560
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,810
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,469/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,805

Max offer price $144,740

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-14	+0% $-58	+5% $-101	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-126	+0% $-58	+5% $11	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-18	base $-58	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1419 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$2,495	$2.77	3d	1	0.34mi
1109 Oxford State Rd Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	744	$995	$1.34	3d	1	0.41mi
1904 Baltimore St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	624	$975	$1.56	45d	1	0.74mi
2000 Pearl St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$3,500	$3.89	3d	4	0.77mi
2101 S Main St Middletown, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0	757	$900	$1.19	3d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 250-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $154,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,469 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,943 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$39/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$1,469
• − Insurance: −$5,893
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$3,086
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$741
• After-tax cash flow: $51/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+519.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $154,900 Cincy MLS
• 2008-08-14 Sold (MLS) $20,000 Cincy MLS
• 2008-06-24 Listed $24,900 Cincy MLS
• 2008-04-07 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2007-11-26 Listed $34,900 Cincy MLS
• 1994-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1993-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1977-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,469 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.