224 Carroll Dr · Stephens City, VA 22655

$250,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Townhouse public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1985 Est $236k · 6% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Convenient, attainable townhome in Stephens City remodeled and move-in ready. On the main floor enjoy refinished hardwood floors in the living room & LVP in the kitchen and half bath. The kitchen boasts modern finishes including concrete countertops, new shaker style cabinets & a timeless subway tile backsplash. Fridge, microwave and dishwasher are just 2 years old. You'll also enjoy a pantry and laundry closet with storage off the eat-in kitchen. The half bath comes with new vanity, mirror, toilet and fixtures. Upstairs the hardwood floors continue in 2 bedrooms, each offering 2 closets! The full bath will blow you away with it's stunning tile surround, new vanity, fixtures, floors and extra touches. New light fixtures throughout, including dimmable lights in the Primary bedroom, and fresh paint add to the sleek finish you're looking for. Out back, enjoy a fenced in yard perfect for pets and privacy, along with an attached storage closet and shed for all your lawn care supplies. Upgrades in the crawlspace will keep even the places you can't see dry and secure. This townhome comes with 2 parking spaces, plus visitor parking at the end of the row.

Key facts

• $33 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($634/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Stephens City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#198 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frederick County Public School District (rural): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #65 of 131 in VA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bass-Hoover Elementary (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C, #689 of 1,108 statewide, top 63%, 600 students, 42% FRL); Robert E. Aylor Middle (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 799 students, 43% FRL); Sherando High (math 72% / reading 89%, grade A, #57 of 319 statewide, top 18%, 1,666 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 872 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Frederick County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,911 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Carroll Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$223	99
210 Brunswick Rd	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,120 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$214	93
601 Carroll Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (0%)	2mo	$279,500	$250	91
205 Brunswick Rd	0.15mi	2/1.5	1,120 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$210	90
402 Carroll Dr	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,160 (+4%)	2mo	$234,300	$202	89
219 Brunswick Rd	0.12mi	2/1.5	1,160 (+4%)	5mo	$235,000	$203	85
240 Nottoway Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,120 (0%)	2mo	$225,000	$201	77
125 Brunswick Rd	0.21mi	2/1.5	1,280 (+14%)	4mo	$270,000	$211	64
225 Nottoway Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	6mo	$265,000	$221	61
143 Buckingham Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,232 (+10%)	4mo	$255,000	$207	57
100 Nottoway Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0	1,000 (-11%)	7mo	$200,000	$200	54
1114 Ravenwood Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (-7%)	1mo	$225,780	$216	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,237
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,470
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22655

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $939/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $124	+0% $53	+5% $-18	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-26	+0% $53	+5% $132	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $116	base $53	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Holt Ct Stephens City, VA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,245	$1.66	0d	4	0.81mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $250,000
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $255,000 Active
4. 2026-04-01
   historical $255,000
5. 2024-11-25
   soldstatus $235,000
6. 2024-11-22
   soldstatus $235,000 Closed 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Convenient, attainable townhome in Stephens City remodeled and move-in ready. On the main floor enjoy refinished hardwood floors in the living room & LVP in the kitchen and half bath. The kitchen boasts modern finishes including concrete countertops, new shaker style cabinets & a timeless subway tile backsplash. Fridge, microwave and dishwasher are just 2 years old. You'll also enjoy a pantry and laundry closet with storage off the eat-in kitchen. The half bath comes with new vanity, mirror, toilet and fixtures. Upstairs the hardwood floors continue in 2 bedrooms, each offering 2 closets! The full bath will blow you away with it's stunning tile surround, new vanity, fixtures, floors and extra touches. New light fixtures throughout, including dimmable lights in the Primary bedroom, and fresh paint add to the sleek finish you're looking for. Out back, enjoy a fenced in yard perfect for pets and privacy, along with an attached storage closet and shed for all your lawn care supplies. Upgrades in the crawlspace will keep even the places you can't see dry and secure. This townhome comes with 2 parking spaces, plus visitor parking at the end of the row.

7. 2024-10-21
   historical Active Under Contract 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Convenient, attainable townhome in Stephens City remodeled and move-in ready. On the main floor enjoy refinished hardwood floors in the living room & LVP in the kitchen and half bath. The kitchen boasts modern finishes including concrete countertops, new shaker style cabinets & a timeless subway tile backsplash. Fridge, microwave and dishwasher are just 2 years old. You'll also enjoy a pantry and laundry closet with storage off the eat-in kitchen. The half bath comes with new vanity, mirror, toilet and fixtures. Upstairs the hardwood floors continue in 2 bedrooms, each offering 2 closets! The full bath will blow you away with it's stunning tile surround, new vanity, fixtures, floors and extra touches. New light fixtures throughout, including dimmable lights in the Primary bedroom, and fresh paint add to the sleek finish you're looking for. Out back, enjoy a fenced in yard perfect for pets and privacy, along with an attached storage closet and shed for all your lawn care supplies. Upgrades in the crawlspace will keep even the places you can't see dry and secure. This townhome comes with 2 parking spaces, plus visitor parking at the end of the row.

8. 2024-10-17
   listed $229,900 Active 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Convenient, attainable townhome in Stephens City remodeled and move-in ready. On the main floor enjoy refinished hardwood floors in the living room & LVP in the kitchen and half bath. The kitchen boasts modern finishes including concrete countertops, new shaker style cabinets & a timeless subway tile backsplash. Fridge, microwave and dishwasher are just 2 years old. You'll also enjoy a pantry and laundry closet with storage off the eat-in kitchen. The half bath comes with new vanity, mirror, toilet and fixtures. Upstairs the hardwood floors continue in 2 bedrooms, each offering 2 closets! The full bath will blow you away with it's stunning tile surround, new vanity, fixtures, floors and extra touches. New light fixtures throughout, including dimmable lights in the Primary bedroom, and fresh paint add to the sleek finish you're looking for. Out back, enjoy a fenced in yard perfect for pets and privacy, along with an attached storage closet and shed for all your lawn care supplies. Upgrades in the crawlspace will keep even the places you can't see dry and secure. This townhome comes with 2 parking spaces, plus visitor parking at the end of the row.

9. 2022-05-25
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed 225-char remark

   Show marketing remark (225 chars)

   This 2 bed, 1.5 bath interior row townhouse is ready for a little TLC! Great opportunity to own in Stephens City convenient to shopping and I-81 for your commute. This property is being sold in “as-is” condition.

10. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1.5 bath interior row townhouse is ready for a little TLC! Great opportunity to own in Stephens City convenient to shopping and I-81 for your commute. This property is being sold in “as-is” condition.

11. 2022-04-23
    historical Active Under Contract 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1.5 bath interior row townhouse is ready for a little TLC! Great opportunity to own in Stephens City convenient to shopping and I-81 for your commute. This property is being sold in “as-is” condition.

12. 2022-04-21
    listed $179,000 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    This 2 bed, 1.5 bath interior row townhouse is ready for a little TLC! Great opportunity to own in Stephens City convenient to shopping and I-81 for your commute. This property is being sold in “as-is” condition.

13. 2010-05-17
    soldstatus $69,900
14. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $69,900
15. 2010-05-14
    soldstatus $69,900 Sold
16. 2010-04-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
17. 2010-04-06
    historical
18. 2010-03-26
    listed $69,900 Active
19. 2010-03-26
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $939 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,111/yr (+$93/mo · 118.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$939
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $1,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frederick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101470
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $67,049
• Composite: 49.75/100
• National rank: #1964
• State rank: #65 of 131 in VA

Livability — Stephens City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #6143

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Frederick County · 60,887 people
• City population: 22,687
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,687
• Household income: $109,169
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Frederick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,976 people
• By 2030: 97,195 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 104,149 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 108,407 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 116,431 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 114,323 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Frederick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.2% · R 63.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+27.4 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.28%
• Current HPI: 211.6611
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Winchester, VA-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Coming Soon $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-22 Sold (MLS) $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-21 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-23 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $69,900 MRIS
• 2010-05-14 Sold (MLS) $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-04-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-03-26 Listed $69,900 MRIS
• 2010-03-26 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $939 · +23.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.