1104 Valley Home Rd · Morristown, TN 37813

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1993 8,276 sqft lot $112/sqft · 32% below area Est $258k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOOKING FOR A HOME CLOSE TO EVERYTHING IN MORRISTOWN SHOPPING, HOSPITAL, SCHOOLS AND MOST OF ANY OF YOUR NEEDS. WILL NEED SOME TLC BUT WOULD MAKE GREAT FIRST HOME OR RENTAL.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($815/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.9% in Morristown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#175 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hamblen County (urban): math 31% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #57 of 139 in TN (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 298 units permitted in Hamblen County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $121k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,408 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,472
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -32.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,088
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,636
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37813

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,454 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,082/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A HOME CLOSE TO EVERYTHING IN MORRISTOWN SHOPPING,HOSPITAL,SCHOOLS AND MOST OF ANY OF YOUR NEEDS. WILL NEED SOME TLC BUT WOULD MAKE GREAT FIRST HOME OR RENTAL.

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $150,000 Active 171-char remark

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    LOOKING FOR A HOME CLOSE TO EVERYTHING IN MORRISTOWN SHOPPING,HOSPITAL,SCHOOLS AND MOST OF ANY OF YOUR NEEDS. WILL NEED SOME TLC BUT WOULD MAKE GREAT FIRST HOME OR RENTAL.

18. 2022-03-24
    soldstatus $121,000
19. 2022-01-13
    listed $99,900
20. 1993-09-07
    soldstatus $11,500
21. 1986-05-14
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,082 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$161/yr (+$13/mo · 14.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,082
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,396
• − Management: −$1,396
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$526
• After-tax cash flow: $1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamblen County
• NCES district ID: 4700001
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,361
• Composite: 25.61/100
• National rank: #7412
• State rank: #57 of 139 in TN

Livability — Morristown

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #175
• US rank: #14625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morristown, TN
• City population: 35,239
• Population (ZIP): 17,479

Population outlook (Hamblen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,185 people
• By 2030: 65,707 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 66,189 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 65,798 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 62,642 · -3.9%
• By 2100: 55,702 · -14.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamblen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.1% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+46.4 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.81%
• Current HPI: 302.4655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+1263.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $150,000 LAAR
• 2026-04-07 Listed $150,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-03-24 Sold (MLS) $121,000 LAAR
• 2022-01-13 Listed $99,900 LAAR
• 1993-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records
• 1986-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,082 · +83.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.