4311 123rd St W · Cortez, FL 34215

$389,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1974 8,002 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Ideal for an Investor or Owner occupant looking for the ultimate Beach life. Property is a 4 bedrooms, 2 baths less than 1 miles away from Bradenton Beach and Anne Marie Island!!. Open kitchen, Stainless steel appliances, comfortable Island, spacious living room, lots of natural light. Good size bedrooms, vinyl flooring throughout, screened patio overlooking the marina. Brand New Roof, Good A/C, New Washer and Dryer inside CarPort. Spacious yard with much potential for a pool or much more. Five minutes to the Island and all Anne Marie Island has to offer.

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Good a/c
• Brand new roof

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SCREENED PATIO
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• GOOD A/C
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.18 acres (80 x 100); Land area less than 1/4 acre; Zoned RDD6/CH
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association / HOA indicated; No association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Open parking; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water and well; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof; Crawlspace and stilt/on piling foundation; Built on pilings/stilts
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Other exterior features; Bay/Harbor and Intracoastal Waterway view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater; Other kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer and dryer included (appliances listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $997 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $390k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 1.8% in Cortez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#486 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $389,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,216,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4337 Marina View Way	0.14mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	0mo	$1,465,000	$873	71
4322 Marina View Way	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	0mo	$1,275,000	$760	70
4305 Marina View Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,683 (+7%)	2mo	$1,610,000	$957	68
4318 Marina View Way	0.16mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,683 (+7%)	9mo	$1,350,000	$802	62
4337 Saltwater Pearl Way	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	7mo	$1,095,000	$653	62
4215 Saltwater Pearl Way	0.20mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	8mo	$1,150,000	$685	62
4425 123rd ST Ct W	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-8%)	14mo	$465,000	$321	59
4231 Marina View Way	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	14mo	$1,580,000	$942	58
12507 Gulf Breeze Ter	0.19mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	13mo	$1,325,000	$790	58
12511 Gulf Breeze Ter	0.20mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,678 (+7%)	22mo	$1,300,000	$775	50
3620 118th St W	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,802 (+15%)	1mo	$475,000	$264	44
3901 116th Street Ct W	0.51mi	2/1.5	1,423 (-9%)	18mo	$160,000	$112	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $115,494
• Equity at exit: $180,323

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $316,841
• Equity at exit: $281,857

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34215

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,147 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,081
• Net cashflow: $997

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,884

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4325 Marina View Way Cortez, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$8,000	$4.77	23d	1	0.12mi
12112 44th Ave W Unit 1545997P Cortez, FL	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,613	$1.33	14d	1	0.14mi
4337 Saltwater Pearl Way Cortez, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$4,200	$2.50	23d	1	0.19mi
4333 Saltwater Pearl Way Cortez, FL	3.0	2.5	1678	$7,000	$4.17	21d	1	0.19mi
2100 Avenue A Bradenton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2077	$3,000	$1.44	15d	1	1.09mi
1397 Perico Point Cir Unit 1397 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1866	$4,500	$2.41	23d	1	1.13mi
1318 Perico Point Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$5,500	$4.32	23d	1	1.15mi
1155 Edgewater Cir #28 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1486	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	1.17mi
971 Waterside Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$6,000	$5.61	23d	1	1.29mi
1233 Spoonbill Landings Cir Unit NA Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$2,500	$1.97	15d	1	1.30mi
1216 Spoonbill Landings Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,500	$1.87	23d	1	1.35mi
2511 Avenue C Unit W Bradenton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1511	$6,500	$4.30	23d	1	1.47mi
922 Sandpiper Cir Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1096	$3,500	$3.19	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $389,900 Active
3. 2026-03-11
   historical
4. 2025-09-15
   status Active
5. 2025-09-15
   price $499,900
6. 2025-08-09
   historical $2,999
7. 2025-07-23
   price $2,999
8. 2025-07-08
   price $3,400
9. 2025-07-07
   price $549,900
10. 2025-06-20
    listed $3,750
11. 2025-06-20
    price $3,750
12. 2025-06-19
    listed $575,000 Active
13. 2025-01-29
    historical
14. 2024-12-21
    listed $499,990 Active
15. 2024-09-23
    historical
16. 2024-07-24
    price $649,000
17. 2024-05-22
    price $659,900
18. 2024-05-01
    price $669,900
19. 2024-04-18
    price $679,900
20. 2024-03-08
    listed $689,000 Active
21. 2024-03-01
    historical
22. 2023-11-29
    price $699,900
23. 2023-10-19
    listed $729,900 Active
24. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus $420,000
25. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus $420,000 Closed
26. 2022-06-08
    status Pending
27. 2022-06-03
    status Active
28. 2022-05-29
    status Pending
29. 2022-05-17
    listed $450,000 Active
30. 1999-05-20
    soldstatus $80,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,220 · $435/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,220 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$7,068
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,941
• − Management: −$4,941
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $6,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $10,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cortez

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #486
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cortez, FL
• City population: 759
• Population (ZIP): 759

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 11% Romanian 7% German 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Current HPI: 281.3803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+384.3% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $499,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $2,999 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $2,999 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $3,400 STELLARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $549,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Listed for Rent $3,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $3,750 STELLARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed $575,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-21 Listed $499,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-24 Price Changed $649,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $659,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $669,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $679,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Listed $689,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $699,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-19 Listed $729,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $420,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-01 Sold (MLS) $420,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-08 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-17 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,220 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.