136 Artist Lake Dr · Middle Island, NY 11953

$249,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a beautifully updated 1 bedroom ground level Condo located in the beautifully maintained Artist Lake Community. HEAT AND HOT WATER IS INCLUDED WITH THE HOA. Featuring clubhouse, community pool, dog park, basketball court, tennis court and playground. All New- Move in ready just unpack and enjoy.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Clubhouse
• Tennis court

Tags

• ARTIST LAKE COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• DOG PARK
• BASKETBALL COURT
• TENNIS COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Middle Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#703 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Middle Island School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 642 students, 46% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $250k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $244,719 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.90%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,692
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-65,044
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11953

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,447 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,994/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$496
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,735

Max offer price $209,826

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
388 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 388 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	43d	1	0.11mi
394 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 394 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	785	$2,650	$3.38	24d	1	0.11mi
444 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 444 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.11mi
356 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 356 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	44d	1	0.12mi
462 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 462 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.12mi
238 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,450	$3.06	24d	1	0.13mi
463 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 463 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,555	$3.68	44d	1	0.14mi
465 Lake Pointe Dr Unit 465 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.14mi
229 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$2,075	$2.44	3d	1	0.15mi
285 Artist Lake Dr Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	836	$1,975	$2.36	43d	1	0.19mi
135 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 135 Middle Island, NY	1.0	1.0	695	$2,405	$3.46	43d	1	0.27mi
130 Lake Pointe Ct Unit 130 Brookhaven, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$2,435	$3.29	43d	1	0.29mi
9 Fairview Cir Unit 2 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,500	$2.64	43d	1	0.37mi
9 Fairview Cir Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.5	947	$2,400	$2.53	24d	1	0.37mi
524 Tudor Ln Unit 524 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	43d	1	0.55mi
301 Tudor Ln Unit 301 Middle Island, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$2,780	$3.10	43d	1	0.58mi
5 Independence Ct Unit 5A Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,700	$2.70	18d	1	1.42mi
3 Saratoga Ct Unit B Ridge, NY	2.0	1.0	880	$2,800	$3.18	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $249,999 Active
3. 2021-11-30
   soldstatus $125,000
4. 2008-06-25
   soldstatus $127,200
5. 2001-06-06
   soldstatus $51,000
6. 2000-05-03
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,994 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,610 · $301/mo
• Expected delta: +$615/yr (+$51/mo · 20.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,366
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,994
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,349
• − Management: −$2,349
• − HOA: −$5,952
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$6,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middle Island

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #703
• US rank: #13264

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle Island, NY
• City population: 13,383
• Population (ZIP): 13,383

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.61%
• Current HPI: 358.0686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+792.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $249,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $127,200 Public Records
• 2001-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2000-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,994 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.