523 Smokey Dr · Loudon, TN 37774

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.00 ac lot Est $268k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your brand new home in the heart of Loudon! This beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and everyday convenience. With 1,568 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space this home features an open-concept layout ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The thoughtfully designed kitchen features ample cabinet space, modern appliances, and a seamless flow into the dining and living areas--perfect for entertaining family and friends. The spacious primary suite provides a private retreat with a luxurious en-suite bath and generous closet space, while three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home offi

Key facts

• Modern appliances
• Ample cabinet space
• Private retreat

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• LUXURIOUS EN-SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Detached property; 1,568 building area (per plans)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other construction materials; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Irregular lot; 1 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Dishwasher; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Loudon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#190 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Loudon County (rural): math 39% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #18 of 139 in TN (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 608 units permitted in Loudon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Loudon County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.03%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,128
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Smokey Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,493 (-5%)	1mo	$255,000	$171	89
517 Smokey Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,493 (-5%)	1mo	$248,000	$166	88
825 Summer St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (0%)	24mo	$232,000	$148	45
1201 Main St	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	20mo	$395,000	$235	43
1201 Main St	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	20mo	$395,000	$235	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-25,514
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,803
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37774

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
211 Waller St Loudon, TN	3.0	1.5	1686	$1,600	$0.95	11d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $250,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,385
• − Management: −$2,385
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $3,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new home in Loudon is move-in ready with modern amenities and a spacious layout. It offers a great balance of comfort and convenience, making it an excellent investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and make the home more appealing.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more renters and make the home more appealing. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudon County
• NCES district ID: 4702520
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,201
• Composite: 32.43/100
• National rank: #5724
• State rank: #18 of 139 in TN

Livability — Loudon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #15214

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loudon, TN
• County: Loudon County · 54,472 people
• City population: 21,784
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 21,784
• Household income: $87,718
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 200.0

Population outlook (Loudon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,364 people
• By 2030: 57,414 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 61,216 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 64,846 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 75,829 · +37.0%
• By 2100: 85,693 · +54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.0) · D 23.0% · R 76.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -53.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.0 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.04%
• Current HPI: 320.0874
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $250,000 Knoxville MLS