3935 E Rough Rider Rd #1020 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$465,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,535 sqft · Condo public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2006 $304/sqft · at area comps Est $480k · at est. $535/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in The Villages at Aviano, a beautiful gated community built by Toll Brothers. This is a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grass areas. Move-In ready, 3 bedrooms/2.5 bathrooms/2 car garage with direct access, fridge, washer/dryer, upgraded kitchen w/ granite, SS appliances, RO System, fresh paint, open floor plan. Upstairs laundry room by the bedrooms for convenience.

Key facts

• $535 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $466k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $423k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $407k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($140k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($452k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $466k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $407,276 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $479,518
• List price: $465,900
• Delta: -2.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-94,868
• Equity at exit: $69,467

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-118,281
• Equity at exit: $40,283

Cash invested: $130,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,443
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,451/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$535
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,380

Max offer price $423,065

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,475
• Closing costs: $13,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1383	$4,350	$3.15	17d	2	0.05mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$6,000	$4.27	18d	3	0.05mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	43d	2	0.05mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	43d	1	0.37mi
4512 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2041	$3,600	$1.76	24d	1	0.69mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	43d	1	0.70mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	14d	1	0.71mi
4211 E Kirkland Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1828	$10,000	$5.47	24d	1	0.72mi
4211 E Kirkland Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1828	$5,000	$2.74	43d	1	0.72mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,200	$2.08	4d	1	0.77mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	43d	1	0.81mi
21150 N Tatum Blvd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1136	$2,495	$2.20	2d	26	0.86mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	7d	1	0.86mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	14d	1	0.92mi
22410 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	2089	$4,500	$2.15	24d	1	0.94mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$3,500	$2.64	18d	4	1.02mi
4847 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$4,500	$2.92	43d	1	1.05mi
21611 N 48th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,650	$1.74	21d	1	1.07mi
20660 N 40th St #2137 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1131	$3,500	$3.09	43d	1	1.07mi
4900 E Deer Valley Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1404	$3,445	$2.45	4d	9	1.09mi
20729 N 37th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,000	$1.80	15d	1	1.09mi
3626 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	1.10mi
3706 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,550	$1.43	24d	1	1.11mi
3706 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1782	$2,550	$1.43	21d	1	1.11mi
21927 N 31st Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2059	$3,700	$1.80	18d	1	1.40mi
3135 E Tina Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	2178	$3,599	$1.65	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $535 · $6,420/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolgymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $465,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $465,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $465,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,900 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    status Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Located in The Villages at Aviano, a beautiful gated community built by Toll Brothers. This is a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grass areas. Move-In ready, 3 bedrooms/2.5 bathrooms/2 car garage with direct access, fridge, washer/dryer, upgraded kitchen w/ granite, SS appliances, RO System, fresh paint, open floor plan. Upstairs laundry room by the bedrooms for convenience.

16. 2026-04-04
    status Pending 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Located in The Villages at Aviano, a beautiful gated community built by Toll Brothers. This is a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grass areas. Move-In ready, 3 bedrooms/2.5 bathrooms/2 car garage with direct access, fridge, washer/dryer, upgraded kitchen w/ granite, SS appliances, RO System, fresh paint, open floor plan. Upstairs laundry room by the bedrooms for convenience.

17. 2026-03-18
    listed $475,900 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    Located in The Villages at Aviano, a beautiful gated community built by Toll Brothers. This is a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grass areas. Move-In ready, 3 bedrooms/2.5 bathrooms/2 car garage with direct access, fridge, washer/dryer, upgraded kitchen w/ granite, SS appliances, RO System, fresh paint, open floor plan. Upstairs laundry room by the bedrooms for convenience.

18. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus $280,000 Closed 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    ***A NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR*** This is Living! A community that has it all...High-demand Aviano complex features all the amenities of a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grassy areas! Fabulous 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo features spacious living area, upgraded kitchen including granite counters, R/O system & cherry cabinets * Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer & Water Softener convey * All bedrooms upstairs * Master suite with separate tub/shower, dual-sinks & w/i closet with built-ins * Freshly painted interior Dec. 2016 * Custom wood shutters * Full 2-car garage * Quality Toll Brothers construction * Easy lock & leave for part-time residents * Completely clean & move-in ready! Just minutes away from Desert Ridge, City North, great dining & shopping! Minutes from Loop 101 & SR-51 Fwy * Don't miss this one!

19. 2017-02-24
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    ***A NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR*** This is Living! A community that has it all...High-demand Aviano complex features all the amenities of a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grassy areas! Fabulous 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo features spacious living area, upgraded kitchen including granite counters, R/O system & cherry cabinets * Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer & Water Softener convey * All bedrooms upstairs * Master suite with separate tub/shower, dual-sinks & w/i closet with built-ins * Freshly painted interior Dec. 2016 * Custom wood shutters * Full 2-car garage * Quality Toll Brothers construction * Easy lock & leave for part-time residents * Completely clean & move-in ready! Just minutes away from Desert Ridge, City North, great dining & shopping! Minutes from Loop 101 & SR-51 Fwy * Don't miss this one!

20. 2017-02-05
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    ***A NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR*** This is Living! A community that has it all...High-demand Aviano complex features all the amenities of a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grassy areas! Fabulous 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo features spacious living area, upgraded kitchen including granite counters, R/O system & cherry cabinets * Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer & Water Softener convey * All bedrooms upstairs * Master suite with separate tub/shower, dual-sinks & w/i closet with built-ins * Freshly painted interior Dec. 2016 * Custom wood shutters * Full 2-car garage * Quality Toll Brothers construction * Easy lock & leave for part-time residents * Completely clean & move-in ready! Just minutes away from Desert Ridge, City North, great dining & shopping! Minutes from Loop 101 & SR-51 Fwy * Don't miss this one!

21. 2017-01-19
    price $284,900 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    ***A NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR*** This is Living! A community that has it all...High-demand Aviano complex features all the amenities of a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grassy areas! Fabulous 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo features spacious living area, upgraded kitchen including granite counters, R/O system & cherry cabinets * Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer & Water Softener convey * All bedrooms upstairs * Master suite with separate tub/shower, dual-sinks & w/i closet with built-ins * Freshly painted interior Dec. 2016 * Custom wood shutters * Full 2-car garage * Quality Toll Brothers construction * Easy lock & leave for part-time residents * Completely clean & move-in ready! Just minutes away from Desert Ridge, City North, great dining & shopping! Minutes from Loop 101 & SR-51 Fwy * Don't miss this one!

22. 2016-12-26
    listed $289,900 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    ***A NEW HOME FOR THE NEW YEAR*** This is Living! A community that has it all...High-demand Aviano complex features all the amenities of a master planned community including: Clubhouse, state of the art fitness center, resort-like pools, tennis & basketball courts, rock climbing wall, playgrounds & grassy areas! Fabulous 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath condo features spacious living area, upgraded kitchen including granite counters, R/O system & cherry cabinets * Refrigerator, Washer/Dryer & Water Softener convey * All bedrooms upstairs * Master suite with separate tub/shower, dual-sinks & w/i closet with built-ins * Freshly painted interior Dec. 2016 * Custom wood shutters * Full 2-car garage * Quality Toll Brothers construction * Easy lock & leave for part-time residents * Completely clean & move-in ready! Just minutes away from Desert Ridge, City North, great dining & shopping! Minutes from Loop 101 & SR-51 Fwy * Don't miss this one!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,451 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,098
• − Property taxes: −$3,451
• − Insurance: −$2,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,910
• − Management: −$3,910
• − HOA: −$6,420
• − Depreciation: −$13,553
• Taxable loss: −$10,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,592
• After-tax cash flow: $-318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+64.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $475,900 ARMLS
• 2017-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-24 Sold (MLS) $280,000 ARMLS
• 2017-02-05 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-01-19 Price Changed $284,900 ARMLS
• 2016-12-26 Listed $289,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,451 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.