3000 Arbor Dr · Manhattan, KS 66503

$145,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1971 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Near warner park
• New gutters
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEAR WARNER PARK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Concrete road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric and natural gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans; Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#6 in KS, #979 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Manhattan-Ogden (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 169 in KS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Manhattan High School West/East Campus (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #45 of 327 statewide, top 14%, 1,954 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 132 units permitted in Riley County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riley County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,000
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $13,220
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66503

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,768 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,003/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $145,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-23
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,003 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,003 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$4,003
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $2,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manhattan-Ogden
• NCES district ID: 2009180
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,001
• Composite: 35.97/100
• National rank: #4795
• State rank: #26 of 169 in KS

Livability — Manhattan

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #979

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manhattan, KS
• County: Riley County · 62,662 people
• City population: 60,966
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• Population (ZIP): 17,273
• Household income: $97,846
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 421.0

Population outlook (Riley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,656 people
• By 2030: 89,075 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 99,100 · +18.5%
• By 2050: 109,146 · +30.5%
• By 2075: 134,178 · +60.4%
• By 2100: 153,653 · +83.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riley

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 47.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.8pp toward D · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+3.2 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -214.01%
• Current HPI: 141.8067
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Manhattan, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $145,000 FHAOR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,003 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.