811 E 16 th St · Sweetwater, TX 79556

$107,350

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1990 6,054 sqft lot $73/sqft · 27% below area Est $150k · 29% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 811 E 16th in Sweetwater with great potential! This property features a welcoming exterior with a covered carport and inviting front entry. Inside, you'll find a spacious living area with original hardwood floors and a functional layout. The large kitchen and dining area offer plenty of cabinet space and room to customize. Both bathrooms are generously sized, including one with a double vanity and walk-in shower, and another with a soaking tub. With solid bones and good natural light throughout, this home is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking a great opportunity.

Key facts

• 6,054 sq ft lot
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $107k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $416 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.1% in Sweetwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Sweetwater ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #681 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Nolan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $742 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nolan County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,129 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.59%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,485
• List price: $107,350
• Delta: -28.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1212 Mccaulley St	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+2%)	10mo	$50,000	$33	69
809 E 13th St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+2%)	18mo	$209,900	$139	59
1620 Morris Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+8%)	13mo	$199,000	$125	42
1002 Josephine St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+13%)	12mo	$55,000	$33	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,133
• Equity at exit: $16,006

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $42,284
• Equity at exit: $9,282

Cash invested: $30,058 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79556

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,545 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$563
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,366/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $416

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $107,350

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,838
• Closing costs: $3,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,350 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,350 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,350 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,350 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,350 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,350 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $107,350 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,350 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $107,350 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $107,350 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,350 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,350 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,350 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,350 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,350 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $113,000 Active 645-char remark
17. 1991-10-29
    soldstatus
18. 1991-04-23
    soldstatus
19. 1981-10-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,013
• − Property taxes: −$2,366
• − Insurance: −$537
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,483
• − Management: −$1,483
• − Depreciation: −$3,123
• Taxable income: $3,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$848
• After-tax cash flow: $4,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842030
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,599
• Composite: 23.36/100
• National rank: #7912
• State rank: #681 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sweetwater

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #12189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sweetwater, TX
• City population: 12,593
• Population (ZIP): 12,593

Population outlook (Nolan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,048 people
• By 2030: 15,043 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 15,235 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 15,603 · +3.7%
• By 2075: 16,528 · +9.8%
• By 2100: 16,427 · +9.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 19% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · Nolan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.2) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.4pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -59.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.2 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.2 2012: R+45.1 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.76%
• Current HPI: 123.8718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $107,350 NCBOR
• 2026-04-27 Listed $113,000 NCBOR
• 1991-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,366 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.