201 E Hubbard St · Josephine, TX 75173

$124,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,789 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1945 0.25 ac lot $45/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Small-town living at its best! This spacious frame home sits on a .25 acre lot, offering room to spread out, entertain, and enjoy. Inside, you’ll find an oversized family room with a cozy fireplace that flows into a step-down kitchen and sunny breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and weekend gatherings. The private primary suite is tucked near a second living area or study, while two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side of the home for added privacy. Step outside to a fenced yard, large deck ideal for grilling and relaxing, plus a storage building for all your extras. With space, flexibility, and a hard-to-find oversized lot, this one won’t stay available for long—schedule your showing today! SOLD AS-IS

Key facts

• Large deck
• Step-down kitchen
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• LARGE DECK
• STORAGE BUILDING
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• STEP-DOWN KITCHEN
• SUNNY BREAKFAST NOOK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $786 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,659 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.98%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,586
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -66.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 N Greenville Rd	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,572 (-8%)	18mo	$190,000	$74	60
406 Mercer Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,667 (-4%)	21mo	$399,900	$150	52
506 Fountain View Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,928 (+5%)	9mo	$295,000	$101	51
601 Dunhill Rd	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,599 (-7%)	1mo	$357,990	$138	48
1206 Sugar Pine Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,454 (-12%)	11mo	$330,990	$135	46
311 Fountain View Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,729 (-2%)	24mo	$359,900	$132	46
313 Fountain View Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,474 (-11%)	10mo	$339,000	$137	38
516 Jasmine Cir	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,602 (-7%)	12mo	$345,000	$133	36
605 Mallard Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,502 (-10%)	14mo	$345,000	$138	36
411 Jasmine Cir	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,502 (-10%)	13mo	$445,000	$178	34
918 Lexington Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,406 (-14%)	21mo	$319,990	$133	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $118,262
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $309,214
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,401/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $786

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,359

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	1d	1	0.42mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	7d	1	0.75mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	1d	1	0.98mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	12d	1	1.05mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	6d	1	1.05mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	1.10mi
601 Barlow Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2090	$2,075	$0.99	43d	1	1.13mi
1208 Riverbrook Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,095	$1.00	43d	1	1.26mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	43d	1	1.29mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 102 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $139,900 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Small-town living at its best! This spacious frame home sits on a .25 acre lot, offering room to spread out, entertain, and enjoy. Inside, you’ll find an oversized family room with a cozy fireplace that flows into a step-down kitchen and sunny breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and weekend gatherings. The private primary suite is tucked near a second living area or study, while two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side of the home for added privacy. Step outside to a fenced yard, large deck ideal for grilling and relaxing, plus a storage building for all your extras. With space, flexibility, and a hard-to-find oversized lot, this one won’t stay available for long—schedule your showing today! SOLD AS-IS

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $144,900 Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Small-town living at its best! This spacious frame home sits on a .25 acre lot, offering room to spread out, entertain, and enjoy. Inside, you’ll find an oversized family room with a cozy fireplace that flows into a step-down kitchen and sunny breakfast nook—perfect for everyday living and weekend gatherings. The private primary suite is tucked near a second living area or study, while two additional bedrooms are positioned on the opposite side of the home for added privacy. Step outside to a fenced yard, large deck ideal for grilling and relaxing, plus a storage building for all your extras. With space, flexibility, and a hard-to-find oversized lot, this one won’t stay available for long—schedule your showing today! SOLD AS-IS

17. 2023-12-23
    price $130,000
18. 2023-12-13
    listed $149,000 Active
19. 2016-07-15
    historical
20. 2016-06-02
    listed $109,900 Active
21. 2016-05-29
    historical
22. 2016-05-07
    price $109,000
23. 2016-04-08
    price $119,000
24. 2016-03-23
    status Active
25. 2016-03-09
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2016-03-02
    listed $125,000 Active
27. 2016-02-09
    historical
28. 2016-02-09
    price $145,000
29. 2015-10-14
    listed $155,099 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,401 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,401 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$4,401
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $8,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,939
• After-tax cash flow: $7,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $144,900 NTREIS
• 2023-12-23 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2023-12-13 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2016-07-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-06-02 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2016-05-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-05-07 Price Changed $109,000 NTREIS
• 2016-04-08 Price Changed $119,000 NTREIS
• 2016-03-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2016-03-09 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-03-02 Listed $125,000 NTREIS
• 2016-02-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-02-09 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2015-10-14 Listed $155,099 NTREIS

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,401 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.