115 Goodwill Rd · Ceredo, WV 25704

$45,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1895 $19/sqft · 83% below area ↓ 34% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 221 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $46k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#18 in WV, #2,195 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Wayne County Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #25 of 55 in WV (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $317 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.24%
• DSCR: 4.08
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,409
• List price: $45,900
• Delta: -79.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 Main St	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,342 (-3%)	14mo	$204,750	$87	66
1101 B St	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,399 (-1%)	16mo	$232,500	$97	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $39,816
• Equity at exit: $6,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.44×
• Total profit: $95,593
• Equity at exit: $3,969

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25704

• Home prices YoY: -13.7%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $813/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $767	-5% $755	+0% $742	+5% $729	+10% $716
Rent	-10% $635	-5% $688	+0% $742	+5% $795	+10% $848
Rate	-1.0pp $765	-0.5pp $753	base $742	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,900 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,900 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,900 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,900 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,900 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,900 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,900 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,900 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,900 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,900 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $45,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

18. 2026-03-21
    price $49,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

19. 2026-02-13
    price $52,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

20. 2026-01-01
    price $55,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

21. 2025-12-09
    price $59,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

22. 2025-11-09
    listed $69,900 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Huntington, large home, 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, with separate living quarters. Steps to Twelvepole creek, with garage

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $813 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$813
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,299
• − Management: −$1,299
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $8,692
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,086
• After-tax cash flow: $6,812/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5401500
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,283
• Composite: 26.08/100
• National rank: #7297
• State rank: #25 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ceredo

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #2195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceredo, WV
• City population: 1,180
• Population (ZIP): 14,413

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,267 people
• By 2030: 36,578 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 33,034 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 29,671 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 22,901 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 17,421 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.4% · R 75.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.21%
• Current HPI: 202.1322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $45,900 GVBOR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $49,900 GVBOR
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $52,900 GVBOR
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $55,900 GVBOR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $59,900 GVBOR
• 2025-11-09 Listed $69,900 GVBOR

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2023): $813 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.