1121 Lucas St · Leesburg, FL 34748

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1922 0.42 ac lot Est $201k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Sort Sale.

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1922
• Listed 189 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Single Family Residence); Zoning: R-2; Lot size approximately 0.42 acres (about 1/4 to less than 1/2 acre); Road surface: Asphalt; Living area reported as 984 sq ft (appraiser); living area source: Appraiser
• Financial info: No lease or investor-specific financial details reported
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features reported
• Utilities: Electricity connected; No water source reported; No sewer reported
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces north
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 948 sq ft (building area total)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances reported
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating: Other; No cooling system reported
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $251 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Leesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#751 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.75%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,736
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2104 South St	0.32mi	2/1.0	1,108 (+13%)	0mo	$59,990	$54	64
1602 Sheffield Rd	0.27mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,094 (+11%)	10mo	$209,300	$191	53
307 Cooke St	0.66mi	2/1.0	932 (-5%)	9mo	$227,000	$244	53
1211 W Dixie Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0	909 (-8%)	7mo	$210,000	$231	47
811 S Lone Oak Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+12%)	7mo	$190,000	$172	47
1409 Braebury Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,102 (+12%)	18mo	$224,900	$204	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,739
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,061
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34748

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,107/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1604 Woodlyn Dr Leesburg, FL	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,500	$1.38	23d	1	0.11mi
822 S Lone Oak Dr Unit B Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,195	$1.33	23d	1	0.43mi
1403 Old Harbor Blvd Leesburg, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1079	$1,366	$1.27	2d	9	0.66mi
200 S Moss St Leesburg, FL	3.0	2.0	968	$1,500	$1.55	23d	1	0.71mi
1508 W Main St Unit 2 Leesburg, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$815	$1.36	4d	1	0.83mi
114 N Chester St Leesburg, FL	1.0	1.0	702	$850	$1.21	4d	1	0.85mi
913 Sumter St Unit 102 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,395	$1.29	17d	1	0.87mi
2602 Houston Pl Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,895	$1.97	4d	1	0.91mi
301 S 11th St Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,450	$1.78	23d	1	0.94mi
1801 Center St Unit 2 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$1,300	$1.72	23d	1	1.04mi
1112 W Main St Unit B-5 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.06mi
210 N Lone Oak Dr Unit 1 Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	14d	1	1.11mi
400 S 6th St Leesburg, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	23d	1	1.12mi
325 S 2nd St Unit 206 Leesburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	4d	1	1.18mi
306 Perkins St Leesburg, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$999	$1.33	23d	1	1.25mi
420 S Palmetto St Leesburg, FL	1.0	1.0	632	$1,250	$1.98	23d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 189 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 188 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 187 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 180 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 179 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 178 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 175 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 174 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 173 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2025-12-19
    status Active
15. 2025-10-13
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-06
    listed $139,000 Active
17. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus $110,000
18. 2007-07-05
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,107
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$190
• After-tax cash flow: $2,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Leesburg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #16429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leesburg, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 70,232
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,095
• Household income: $58,192
• Rent vs Own: 24.9% rent · 75.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1745.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.97%
• Current HPI: 262.1766
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2007-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,107 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.