2618 Lakewood Dr · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1980 0.32 ac lot $130/sqft · at area comps Est $126k · 39% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently renovated 2.1 home located near Lake Tawakoni. Property features many mature trees, a 20' storage container with electricity, covered parking, and an attached 450sf bonus area that could be upgraded into additional living quarters.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 284 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,901
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 39.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4525 County Road 3706	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$40,000	$28	51
2549 Bass Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-10%)	22mo	$119,900	$99	48
2841 Honey Bee Ln	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (-10%)	5mo	$199,999	$164	38
879 Vz County Road 3822	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,246 (-8%)	23mo	$250,000	$201	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,121
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $18,990
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,099/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10895 Catfish Dr E Wills Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,700	$1.64	12d	1	0.38mi
10081 Jacobs Ln Wills Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,390	$1.31	1d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $175,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Recently renovated 2.1 home located near Lake Tawakoni. Property features many mature trees, a 20' storage container with electricity, covered parking, and an attached 450sf bonus area that could be upgraded into additional living quarters.

15. 2026-02-16
    listed $189,900 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Recently renovated 2.1 home located near Lake Tawakoni. Property features many mature trees, a 20' storage container with electricity, covered parking, and an attached 450sf bonus area that could be upgraded into additional living quarters.

16. 2015-11-25
    soldstatus
17. 2014-06-16
    soldstatus Closed 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    House has been reduced to a shell, most everything has been stripped out of it. There is a water hook-up, septic, and power. Rehab project for someone willing to work on property.

18. 2014-06-13
    soldstatus
19. 2014-05-12
    listed $9,900 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    House has been reduced to a shell, most everything has been stripped out of it. There is a water hook-up, septic, and power. Rehab project for someone willing to work on property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,099 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,103/yr (+$92/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,099
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,058
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$254
• After-tax cash flow: $3,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1667.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2015-11-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2014-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-12 Listed $9,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,099 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.