3838 Ethel Ave · Fussels Corner, FL 33823

$148,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2006 9,827 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors! This 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home has fresh paint, new flooring, kitchen, back deck, front door, vanities, toilets, appliances, fixtures and is newly landscaped. Each bedroom has large walk in closets and there is a ceiling fan in the master bedroom. The master bathroom has been updated with a new vanity, toilet, and there is a garden tub. This would make a great first home or rental property. Close to bus line and located on a corner lot (situated on what was 3 separate lots). Property has a Culligan water filtration system that can be taken over by new owners if wanted. Sold AS-IS. All sizes and are approximate and information should be verified before purchase.

Key facts

• New stove
• Large spacious lot
• New refrigerator

Tags

• LARGE SPACIOUS LOT
• NEW ROOF
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• BRAND NEW CARPET
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• NEW STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; R-2 zoning

Exterior

• Parking: Paved road access
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Public utilities access
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One-story; Faces south; Entry on main level
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Water filtration system; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#814 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarence Boswell Elementary School (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 636 students, 62% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 476 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $149k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.43%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,714
• Equity at exit: $22,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $40,016
• Equity at exit: $12,874

Cash invested: $41,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33823

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,799 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,752/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $432

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,252

Max offer price $148,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $474	+0% $432	+5% $390	+10% $348
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $361	+0% $432	+5% $503	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $470	base $432	+0.5pp $393	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,225
• Closing costs: $4,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1416 Robin St Unit 1 Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	840	$1,750	$2.08	15d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $148,900 Pending 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $148,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $148,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-05-01
   status Active
6. 2026-04-30
   historical
7. 2026-04-20
   price $148,900
8. 2026-02-12
   price $149,900
9. 2026-01-30
   listed $154,900 Active
10. 2025-09-17
    soldstatus $82,700
11. 2018-09-19
    soldstatus $59,000
12. 2018-09-15
    soldstatus $59,000 Sold 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Attention investors! This 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home has fresh paint, new flooring, kitchen, back deck, front door, vanities, toilets, appliances, fixtures and is newly landscaped. Each bedroom has large walk in closets and there is a ceiling fan in the master bedroom. The master bathroom has been updated with a new vanity, toilet, and there is a garden tub. This would make a great first home or rental property. Close to bus line and located on a corner lot (situated on what was 3 separate lots). Property has a Culligan water filtration system that can be taken over by new owners if wanted. Sold AS-IS. All sizes and are approximate and information should be verified before purchase.

13. 2018-08-16
    status Pending 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Attention investors! This 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home has fresh paint, new flooring, kitchen, back deck, front door, vanities, toilets, appliances, fixtures and is newly landscaped. Each bedroom has large walk in closets and there is a ceiling fan in the master bedroom. The master bathroom has been updated with a new vanity, toilet, and there is a garden tub. This would make a great first home or rental property. Close to bus line and located on a corner lot (situated on what was 3 separate lots). Property has a Culligan water filtration system that can be taken over by new owners if wanted. Sold AS-IS. All sizes and are approximate and information should be verified before purchase.

14. 2018-07-16
    listed $59,900 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Attention investors! This 3 bedroom 2 bath mobile home has fresh paint, new flooring, kitchen, back deck, front door, vanities, toilets, appliances, fixtures and is newly landscaped. Each bedroom has large walk in closets and there is a ceiling fan in the master bedroom. The master bathroom has been updated with a new vanity, toilet, and there is a garden tub. This would make a great first home or rental property. Close to bus line and located on a corner lot (situated on what was 3 separate lots). Property has a Culligan water filtration system that can be taken over by new owners if wanted. Sold AS-IS. All sizes and are approximate and information should be verified before purchase.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,341
• − Property taxes: −$1,752
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,727
• − Management: −$1,727
• − Depreciation: −$4,332
• Taxable income: $2,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$711
• After-tax cash flow: $4,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fussels Corner

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #814
• US rank: #19824

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fussels Corner, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,779
• Household income: $71,485
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 821.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.70%
• Current HPI: 316.9436
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.18%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $148,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $82,700 Public Records
• 2018-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-15 Sold (MLS) $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-16 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,752 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.