1504 Aerie Way #1504 · East Quogue, NY 11942

$545,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Condo · 76 Days on market

Built 2003 $406/sqft · 42% below area Est $933k · 42% under $547/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well Appointed 2 Bedroom Upper End Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Over 55 Community. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows with woodsy views and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

Key facts

• 1,341 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $545k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($98k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $545k).
• Recommended offer: $512k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $153k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($512k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $512,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.25%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $933,142
• List price: $545,000
• Delta: -41.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $432,678
• Equity at exit: $81,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.88×
• Total profit: $1,049,222
• Equity at exit: $47,122

Cash invested: $152,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$681 /mo · $8,175/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$547
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,319
• Net cashflow: $8,171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,460

Max offer price $545,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8,548	-5% $8,359	+0% $8,171	+5% $7,983	+10% $7,794
Rent	-10% $6,923	-5% $7,547	+0% $8,171	+5% $8,795	+10% $9,419
Rate	-1.0pp $8,445	-0.5pp $8,310	base $8,171	+0.5pp $8,030	+1.0pp $7,886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,250
• Closing costs: $16,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	45d	1	0.41mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	45d	1	0.46mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	12d	1	0.85mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	45d	1	0.89mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	26d	1	1.02mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	19d	1	1.02mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	45d	1	1.18mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.31mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	45d	1	1.37mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $547 · $6,564/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $545,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $545,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $545,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $545,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $545,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $545,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $545,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-03-25
   listed $545,000 Active 1158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

   Well Appointed 2 Bedroom Upper End Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Over 55 Community. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows with woodsy views and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

9. 2026-03-24
   historical $545,000 1158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1158 chars)

   Well Appointed 2 Bedroom Upper End Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Over 55 Community. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows with woodsy views and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $189,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,528
• − Property taxes: −$8,175
• − Insurance: −$2,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,171
• − Management: −$15,171
• − HOA: −$6,564
• − Depreciation: −$15,855
• Taxable income: $95,448
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22,907
• After-tax cash flow: $75,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $545,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon $545,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid