13642 E Greystokes Dr · Vail, AZ 85641

$294,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · Land · 75 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot $174/sqft · 34% below area Est $445k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Commanding the corner of a full acre, this property delivers sweeping 360° mountain views and zero HOA restrictions. Inside, a smart split floor plan centers around a massive primary suite with spa-style bath, soaking tub, walk-in shower, and oversized closet. The kitchen features a breakfast island, abundant cabinetry, and skylights that flood the space with natural light, carried through expansive windows in the living areas. Granite surfaces throughout, bay windows in every bedroom, and a wood-burning fireplace with heat-disbursing fan add both style and function. Topped off with a brand-new roof--this one stands above the rest.

Key facts

• Oversized closet
• Spa-style bath
• Soaking tub

Tags

• 360 MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• MASSIVE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA-STYLE BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• OVERSIZED CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Vail — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#51 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Acacia Elementary School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #263 of 1,109 statewide, top 24%, 743 students, 29% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $295k implies a 1375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,582 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,655
• List price: $294,999
• Delta: -33.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-61,529
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-57,429
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 662
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $253,300

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-186	+0% $-288	+5% $-390	+10% $-492
Rent	-10% $-463	-5% $-376	+0% $-288	+5% $-201	+10% $-113
Rate	-1.0pp $-140	-0.5pp $-213	base $-288	+0.5pp $-365	+1.0pp $-442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $294,999 Pending 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $294,999 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $294,999 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   price $294,999 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Commanding the corner of a full acre, this property delivers sweeping 360° mountain views and zero HOA restrictions. Inside, a smart split floor plan centers around a massive primary suite with spa-style bath, soaking tub, walk-in shower, and oversized closet. The kitchen features a breakfast island, abundant cabinetry, and skylights that flood the space with natural light, carried through expansive windows in the living areas. Granite surfaces throughout, bay windows in every bedroom, and a wood-burning fireplace with heat-disbursing fan add both style and function. Topped off with a brand-new roof--this one stands above the rest.

5. 2026-03-19
   listed $299,999 Active 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Commanding the corner of a full acre, this property delivers sweeping 360° mountain views and zero HOA restrictions. Inside, a smart split floor plan centers around a massive primary suite with spa-style bath, soaking tub, walk-in shower, and oversized closet. The kitchen features a breakfast island, abundant cabinetry, and skylights that flood the space with natural light, carried through expansive windows in the living areas. Granite surfaces throughout, bay windows in every bedroom, and a wood-burning fireplace with heat-disbursing fan add both style and function. Topped off with a brand-new roof--this one stands above the rest.

6. 2026-01-12
   listed $319,000 Active 546-char remark

   Show marketing remark (546 chars)

   Beautiful Home That Sits on a Corner Acre Lot Surrounded by Spectacular 360 degree Mountain Views. Split Floor Plan With Huge Master Bedroom, Master Bath With Hot Tub, Separate Shower and Large Walk In Closet. Kitchen With Breakfast Island and Laundry With Plenty of Cabinets. Bay Windows in All Bedrooms, Skylights in Kitchen and Master Closet and Large Windows in Kitchen and Living Room That Fill this Home With Beautiful Natural Light and Awesome Views. Granite Countertops Throughout. Wood Burning Fireplace With Heat Disbursing Fan. NO HOA

7. 2000-07-26
   soldstatus $20,000
8. 2000-07-26
   soldstatus $55,000
9. 2000-07-26
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$8,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,081
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Vail

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #9543

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vail, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 34,752
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1375.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $294,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-19 Listed $299,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-12 Listed $319,000 Fizber.com
• 2000-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $383 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.