119 Forest Park Ct · Denton, MI 48651

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1973 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home situated on two lots, offering extra space, privacy, and room to grow. This home features two thoughtful additions that expand the living space and add flexibility--perfect for a larger living area, home office, or additional sleeping space. With plenty of outdoor room to enjoy, garden, or even build, this property is full of potential for a first-time buyer or someone looking to make it their own. Affordable, functional, and ready for its next chapter--don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Two lots
• Thoughtful additions
• Garden

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• THOUGHTFUL ADDITIONS
• OUTDOOR ROOM
• GARDEN
• FLEXIBILITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 140 (about 0.4 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Oven; Range; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Houghton Lake Community Schools (rural): math 18% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #410 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Roscommon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roscommon County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $65,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.95%
• DSCR: 3.76
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,766
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Forest Park Ct	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,150 (-14%)	1mo	$47,000	$41	70
886 Springwood Dr	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-6%)	16mo	$380,000	$302	38
1110 Springwood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	9mo	$223,500	$149	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.71×
• Total profit: $53,057
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.60×
• Total profit: $129,178
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48651

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,885 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $999/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $1,010

Break-even live

Break-even rent $606

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $69,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $999 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,038 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$39/yr (+$3/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$999
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $11,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,810
• After-tax cash flow: $9,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houghton Lake Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618600
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,744
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8158
• State rank: #410 of 540 in MI

Livability — Denton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,331

Population outlook (Roscommon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,249 people
• By 2030: 21,206 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 19,070 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 17,564 · -21.1%
• By 2075: 15,420 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 13,168 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roscommon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.9) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.9 2020: R+30.0 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.27%
• Current HPI: 252.9662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $99,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $999 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.