819 Glenco Rd · Durham, NC 27703

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1979 0.60 ac lot Est $364k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom, 2 full bath brick home with so much potential. Great location short drive to Durham, Briar Creek, RTP I540 and I40. Large living room with sliding doors to back deck. Large open back yard. Detached shed in back yard. Covered front porch. So many little things that make this a great future home! Master on back side of home, 2 additional bedrooms on front.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large living room
• Back deck

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BACK DECK
• LARGE OPEN BACK YARD
• DETACHED SHED
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: Unknown
• Home design: Single-story site-built home; One level
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.6 acre; Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($197/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pearsontown Elementary (math 64% / reading 73%, grade B+, #111 of 1,410 statewide, top 8%, 726 students, 27% FRL); Lowe'S Grove Middle (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #445 of 475 statewide, top 94%, 700 students, 75% FRL); Hillside High (math 31% / reading 32%, grade F, #449 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,973 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,953
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
819 Glenco Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,270 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$185	90
2409 Rolling Pines Ave	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,250 (-7%)	7mo	$352,500	$282	54
1719 Stage Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$390,000	$271	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-41,426
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-51,980
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27703

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,556/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,059

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $83	+0% $16	+5% $-50	+10% $-117
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-66	+0% $16	+5% $99	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $76	base $16	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 Glenco Rd Durham, NC	2.0	1.5	1364	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	0.08mi
28 Sharpstone Ln Durham, NC	3.0	3.0	1473	$1,750	$1.19	25d	1	0.49mi
18 Sharpstone Ln Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,075	$1.44	25d	1	0.52mi
2400 Sanders Ave Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$2,510	$2.41	15d	94	0.56mi
2421 Sanders Ave Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,764	$2.57	15d	13	0.56mi
1210 Commack Dr Unit 1210 Durham, NC	2.0	2.5	1800	$2,795	$1.55	25d	1	0.61mi
3001 New Haven Dr Durham, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1087	$1,893	$1.74	15d	32	0.64mi
2015 Copper Leaf Pkwy Durham, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,909	$2.00	15d	22	0.69mi
4212 Congleton Pl Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1598	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	0.84mi
3023 Newfields Pl Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,095	$1.23	15d	1	0.85mi
1108 Congleton Pl Unit 1 Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,095	$1.19	25d	1	0.87mi
123 Phantom Ln Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,950	$1.22	15d	1	1.20mi
221 Irving Way Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1642	$2,100	$1.28	15d	1	1.23mi
502 Timpson Ave Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,995	$1.19	25d	1	1.27mi
200 Foxridge Cres Durham, NC	2.0	2.0	988	$1,312	$1.33	15d	4	1.36mi
2015 Watchorn St Durham, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,533	$2.57	15d	47	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,556 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,556 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,957
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$3,556
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$904
• After-tax cash flow: $1,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Durham, NC
• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,458
• Household income: $89,317
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1685.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.81%
• Current HPI: 206.7413
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $235,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,556 · +218.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.