11 Lawrence Road 270 #270 · Lynn, AR 72466

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1975

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Trailer house that has been added on to significantly. Has a large living room, large dining room, large master bedroom, kitchen, two other bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, laundry room, 2 car carport, shed. Front porch redone in 2021, new hvac package unit installed in 2021, lots of updates in 2021. House does need a little work but is move in ready.

Key facts

• Large dining room
• 2 car carport
• Shed

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• 2 CAR CARPORT
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#397 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Hillcrest School District (rural): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $75k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $73,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.02%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $36,911
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $92,312
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72466

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $596

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $459	+0% $438	+5% $417	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $392	+0% $438	+5% $483	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $476	-0.5pp $457	base $438	+0.5pp $418	+1.0pp $399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 2005-06-02
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $4,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillcrest School District
• NCES district ID: 0500071
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,660
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4112
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lynn

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #23066

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,610

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+188.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 2005-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.