1158 CR 439 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$122,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1976 7,184 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home would make a great winter retreat, weekend get away, or even a place to call home. This home has been well maintained, updated items throughout, and only a few minutes to the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee that offers some of the best fishing! This home has a large screened in porch that overlooks the swimming pool with a sun deck. It also has plenty of room to entertain your friends and family for the Holidays and the good ole BBQ hangouts. This home is minutes from the Villages that offers shopping, dining, golf and plenty of entertainment. Also nearby is the West Coast that offers kayaking, fishing, shopping dining and cool springs to dip into.

Key facts

• Two carports
• Minutes from us-301
• 7,184 sq ft lot

Tags

• SHED FOR EXTRA STORAGE
• TWO CARPORTS
• DECK FOR ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• EASY ACCESS TO BOATING
• FISHING AND OUTDOOR RECREATION
• MINUTES FROM US-301

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.16 acres (80 x 90), paved road access; Building area reported (per public records)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential double-wide mobile home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Roof over; One septic system
• Exterior features: French doors; Storage; Shed(s); Workshop; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.06%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,896
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1637 CR 434	0.73mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	2mo	$73,000	$89	51
2305 CR 436a	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	11mo	$120,000	$125	46
1611 Cr 434	0.71mi	2/1.0	768 (-11%)	9mo	$65,000	$85	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $51,680
• Equity at exit: $69,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $135,769
• Equity at exit: $119,081

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,434 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $843/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1314 CR 443 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	973	$1,575	$1.62	21d	1	0.30mi
2248 CR 446 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,225	$1.88	21d	1	0.57mi
1115 NW 12th Ln Lake Panasoffkee, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,295	$1.65	21d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $122,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $122,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $122,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $122,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $122,000 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $122,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $122,000
17. 2026-02-13
    status Active
18. 2026-02-10
    status Pending
19. 2026-02-03
    listed $143,500 Active
20. 2023-10-09
    soldstatus $138,500 Closed 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    This home would make a great winter retreat, weekend get away, or even a place to call home. This home has been well maintained, updated items throughout, and only a few minutes to the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee that offers some of the best fishing! This home has a large screened in porch that overlooks the swimming pool with a sun deck. It also has plenty of room to entertain your friends and family for the Holidays and the good ole BBQ hangouts. This home is minutes from the Villages that offers shopping, dining, golf and plenty of entertainment. Also nearby is the West Coast that offers kayaking, fishing, shopping dining and cool springs to dip into.

21. 2023-09-21
    status Pending 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    This home would make a great winter retreat, weekend get away, or even a place to call home. This home has been well maintained, updated items throughout, and only a few minutes to the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee that offers some of the best fishing! This home has a large screened in porch that overlooks the swimming pool with a sun deck. It also has plenty of room to entertain your friends and family for the Holidays and the good ole BBQ hangouts. This home is minutes from the Villages that offers shopping, dining, golf and plenty of entertainment. Also nearby is the West Coast that offers kayaking, fishing, shopping dining and cool springs to dip into.

22. 2023-08-24
    listed $146,000 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    This home would make a great winter retreat, weekend get away, or even a place to call home. This home has been well maintained, updated items throughout, and only a few minutes to the beautiful Lake Panasoffkee that offers some of the best fishing! This home has a large screened in porch that overlooks the swimming pool with a sun deck. It also has plenty of room to entertain your friends and family for the Holidays and the good ole BBQ hangouts. This home is minutes from the Villages that offers shopping, dining, golf and plenty of entertainment. Also nearby is the West Coast that offers kayaking, fishing, shopping dining and cool springs to dip into.

23. 2011-01-20
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,013 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$843
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,376
• − Management: −$1,376
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $2,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$628
• After-tax cash flow: $3,833/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+144.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $122,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $143,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Sold (MLS) $138,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-24 Listed $146,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $843 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.